JOLTS Job openings Decline in December
JOLTS: Job Openings Slip to 6.5 Million as Labor Demand Cools The December JOLTS report (released February 5) shows U.S. labor demand cooling into year-end. Total nonfarm job openings fell to 6.5 million. That was down 386,000 from November and down 966,000 from a year earlier. The openings rate held around 3.9%. The drop showed […]
Same Inflation, Different Decision: The Fed’s Hold Was Not Neutral
The Fed Hold Was Not Neutral, and It Was Not Just About Inflation The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. The Fed blamed persistent inflation and said it needs more confirmation before it eases again. That story sounds tidy and defensible. However, it still leaves out the part markets trade. The Decision […]
Two Clocks, One Market: Ray Dalio Vs. Paul Tudor Jones
Two Clocks, One Market How Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones see the same system – differently When assessing the current market environment, Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones are often presented as holding opposing views. In reality, they largely agree on the core observations. They see the same distortions, the same pressures, and the […]
Fed Cuts Rates, Liquidity Management Takes Center Stage
Fed Cuts Rates and Begins T-Bill Purchases as Liquidity Takes Priority The Federal Reserve ended the year with a rate cut and a new liquidity program. The central bank lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%. It also announced that T-bill purchases will start on December 12. These steps signal a […]
Fed Meeting and Trump–Xi Summit Drive Global Market Focus
Powell, Policy, and the Pacific: Fed and Trump–Xi Talks Dominate the Week Week of October 27–31, 2025 | Paradigm Futures Markets enter the final week of October riding record-high momentum in U.S. equities after September’s cooler-than-expected inflation report and growing expectations for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts. With consumer prices rising just 0.3% on the month and 3.0% year-over-year, investors […]
Shutdown Dynamics: Historical Market Behavior vs Current Conditions
Shutdown Dynamics: Historical Market Behavior vs Current Conditions From 2018 to 2025: How Commodities and Markets Respond to Washington Gridlock Government Shutdown Market Impact 2025 vs 2018 — what history shows, what’s different today, and how to navigate a market trading without its usual data compass. * As of late Sunday afternoon, October 5, 2025: Speaker Johnson […]
U.S. GDP Rebounds as Durable Goods and Trade Data Surprise
Economic Data Update – September 25, 2025 Today’s economic releases delivered a mix of strength and caution, highlighting resilient GDP growth, an unexpected rebound in durable goods, and easing jobless claims—though persistent labor market pressures remain in the background. GDP Growth Rebounds in Q2 The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the third and final estimate […]
Better Late than Never? Fed Cuts Rates 25bps
Fed Cuts Rates by 25 bps, as Growth Moderates, Inflation Remains The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its September meeting by lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%. The decision reflects slower economic momentum in the first half of the year, a cooling labor market, and inflation that […]
Mixed U.S. Economic Data as Fed Weighs Rate Cut
Retail Sales, Trade Prices, Industrial Output, and Housing Signal Mixed Momentum Ahead of Fed Decision Four major U.S. economic reports released today delivered a mix of resilience and caution across consumer spending, trade prices, industrial output, and housing confidence. Together, the data highlight steady consumer demand and pricing pressures, modest production gains, and a housing […]
Bond Yields Tick Up, Commodities Advance Ahead of FOMC
Markets Brace for Fed as Yields Edge Higher, Dollar Holds Range, Commodities Firm U.S. indexes ended the week mixed. Treasury yields rebounded, which prompted profit-taking in equities. At the same time, the University of Michigan’s September consumer sentiment dropped to a four-month low at 55.4. Long-run inflation expectations also rose to 3.9%. As a result, […]
