BAL 
$61.00  0.29%  
CANE 
$11.23  0.97%  
JO 
$54.00  1.22%  
NIB 
$36.29  1.65%  
IEF 
$93.11  0.31%  
^UGA-IV 
$68.31  1.39%  
UNG 
$19.10  5.12%  
USO 
$76.97  0.94%  
FXA 
$66.31  0.25%  
FXB 
$122.23  0.30%  
FXC 
$71.86  0.03%  
FXE 
$100.43  0.07%  
FXF 
$97.92  0.30%  
FXY 
$59.48  0.12%  
UUP 
$28.56  0.00%  
CORN 
$20.31  0.93%  
SOYB 
$25.52  0.28%  
WEAT 
$6.09  1.30%  
JJC 
$19.56  1.24%  
GLD 
$223.66  1.65%  

U.S. Dollar Leans Heavy on Soybean Prices, Are HPAI Worries Behind Us?

Soybean Harvest

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Grain Market News:

The weather has not been a real threat to planting progress in the U.S. with the recent moisture, the market has viewed this as mostly bearish, considering how dry parts of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Nebraska are. Planting delay worries for corn won’t come until mid-May.

The tension between Israel and Iran has been kept under wraps, and traders are reluctant to push the energy markets further past the $85 mark.

The recent spike in the U.S. dollar after last week’s CPI came in a bit hotter than anticipated and has hit the soybean complex the hardest. A strong dollar harms the Brazilian Real, which makes their soybeans more affordable to export. Brazil’s export prices have been rising and are over $1.00 per bushel, off the lows set in January and $1.60 above last year’s levels.

U.S. Dollar Index

The USDA vs. Conab numbers continue to have a much wider spread than usual. So far, the market has chosen to believe the USDA. The market has shifted to prove it before we trade it. If the market is as tight as CONAB says, the cash markets should show it first.

Livestock Market News:

The market has started to ease its worries about HPAI after the scientific community assured that once the animal is infected, it recovers in time, and pasteurized milk is safe.

Cash trade has started to align with the future. However, the deferred contracts are still at a sizeable discount.

The hog market may have put a short-term top in after the bearish key reversal. It is right back down into an old trading range. We are looking to see if we can hold that range. We are keeping an eye on the cash trade. Cutouts are up, and exports are strong, but demand is still showing strength.

Lean Hog Chart
July Lean Hog Futures

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