Markets Rally on Speculation of a FED Pivot.
October CPI report, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) held steady on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 0.4 percent increase in September. Over the past 12 months, the all items index saw a 3.2 percent increase before seasonal adjustment.
The month of October witnessed a continued uptick in the shelter index, counteracting a decline in the gasoline index and resulting in an overall unchanged seasonally adjusted index. The energy index experienced a 2.5 percent decrease, driven by a 5.0-percent drop in the gasoline index, which more than offset increases in other energy component indexes. Meanwhile, the food index rose by 0.3 percent in October, building on a 0.2 percent increase in September. Specifically, the index for food at home increased by 0.3 percent, while the index for food away from home saw a 0.4 percent rise.
Breaking Down the Numbers.
Breaking it down further, the index for all items, excluding food and energy, saw a 0.2 percent increase in October, following a 0.3 percent rise in September. Notable contributors to this increase include rent, owners’ equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, recreation, and personal care. On the flip side, indexes for lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, communication, and airline fares experienced declines over the month.
Year Over Year Trends.
Examining the 12-month trends, the all items index rose by 3.2 percent for the period ending in October, marking a slight decrease from the 3.7-percent increase recorded in the 12 months ending September. The all items, less food and energy index, experienced a 4.0 percent rise over the last 12 months, representing its smallest 12-month change since the period ending in September 2021. Notably, the energy index witnessed a 4.5 percent decrease for the 12 months ending in October, while the food index increased by 3.3 percent over the past year.
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