U.S. Strikes on Kharg Island Present Two Paths Ahead
Energy Markets Reopen as Kharg Strikes Send a Message. Message Sent. How will it be received? Energy markets will reopen for the first time since U.S. strikes on military targets near Kharg Island. Iran’s primary crude export hub. Production capability and terminals were not damaged, for now. However, if the Strait of Hormuz is not […]
In a Strait of Shock. Oil Markets Lose a Main Artery, SPR Becomes a Tourniquet
Oil Markets on Edge as Hormuz Traffic Halts Oil markets erupted after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed. Prices spiked as traders rushed to price the worst case. But the reality behind the disruption may look very different than the narrative driving the market. Key takeaways Hormuz normally moves about 20 million barrels […]
Argentina Livestock Outlook, Lower Consumption & Higher Exports
Argentina’s 2026 Beef Play: Less Kill, Heavier Cattle, More Export USDA’s new livestock semi‑annual from Buenos Aires shows Argentina cutting slaughter, feeding cattle longer on cheap corn, and leaning hard on fresh export access. The result is slightly lower beef output at home, softer per‑capita consumption. More volume chasing high‑value demand in China, the United […]
March WASDE: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat USDA Stays Conservative While Global Stocks Grind Higher USDA’s March WASDE delivers no major surprises for the three primary row crops. The report repeats the same theme: comfortable old-crop balance sheets, only modest changes in world numbers, and no fresh reason for a big fundamental rally. Corn: No Change […]
Brazil & Japan’s Beef Outlook, ’26 Livestock Report
Brazil Holds Cattle, Grows Pork While Japan Looks for Cheaper Beef Two new USDA reports give a clean read on 2026 fundamentals. Brazil still sits near the top of global beef production and leans into higher prices and growing pork exports. Japan runs a shrinking herd, softer domestic demand, and flat imports, but it can […]
Trump Orders U.S. Navy to Escort Vessels Through Hormuz
Hormuz At Gunpoint: War-Risk Premium, Escorts, And What’s Really Driving This Oil Spike Crude has pushed into the upper end of our projected band as the Iran campaign and Strait of Hormuz headlines take hold. The move looks dramatic. However, this is an insurance issue, not a supply‑shock rally. Pricing is being driven by war […]
US “Major Campaign” in Iran. What it Means for Oil Markets.
Iran Campaign Begins: Markets Shift From “Strike Risk” To Range-Bound War Premium As many discovered; or soon will upon waking this morning, the Iran conflict risk that markets have spent the past week pricing in has now materialized. With President Trump framing the opening strikes as the start of a “major” multi‑day campaign rather than […]
Argentina Oilseeds Report: Weather, Soybeans & Crush
Argentina Oilseeds Update: Weather Relief, Crush Strength, and a Sunflower Shift USDA FAS Buenos Aires’ February 25, 2026 Oilseeds and Products Update keeps the core story intact. Argentina heads into 2025/26 with a solid soybean crop, record‑setting sunflower fundamentals, and a sharp pullback in peanut area. Timely February rains salvaged yield potential after a stressful […]
Supreme Court Limits IEEPA Tariffs
SCOTUS 6-3 Decision President Can Still Tariff, Just Not Via Emergency Powers The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping Liberation Day tariffs. This does not mean the president cannot impose tariffs. It means he cannot use IEEPA as a catch-all […]
USDA Acreage Outlook: Less Corn, More Beans
2026 Acres: Rotation Year, Total Area Flat as Allocation Reshuffles USDA’s 2026 grains and oilseeds outlook points to a classic rotation year, not a land grab. Total principal crop acres barely move. The real story is the reshuffle inside the row-crop base as producers walk back record corn, lean into soybeans, and continue to chip […]
