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WASDE Report Released with Few Surprises

No Major Adjustments in March WASDE

WASDE

 

 

Corn: 1.342 billion bu. for 2022-23; up from 1.267 billion bu. in February

Soybeans: 210 million bu. for 2022-23; down from 225 million bu. in February

Wheat: 568 million bu. for 2022-23; unchanged from 568 million bu. in February

Cotton: 4.3 million bales for 2022-23; unchanged from 4.3 million bales in February

 

 

USDA increased its prediction for corn ending stocks in 2022–23 by 75 million bushels from last month; this rise was higher than the 41 million bushels that traders had anticipated. The only adjustment was a 75-million-bushel reduction to export projections, which are now 1.850 billion bushels. The USDA revised its average on-farm cash price projection for 2022–23 downward by a penny to $6.60 from last month.

Corn 19/20 20/21 21/22 02/08/2023 03/08/2023 Change
Area Planted (Million Acres) 89.7 90.7 93.3 88.6 88.6 0
Area Harvested (Million Acres) 81.3 82.3 85.3 79.2 79.2 0
Yield per Harvested Acre (Bushels) 167.5 171.4 176.7 173.3 173.3 0
Carry-In (Million Bushels) 2221 1919 1235 1377 1377 0
Production (Million Bushels) 13620 14111 15074 13730 13730 0
Imports (Million Bushels) 42 24 24 50 50 0
Total Supply (Million Bushels) 15883 16055 16333 15157 15157 0
Feed & Residual (Million Bushels) 5897 5598 5718 5275 5275 0
F/S/I (Million Bushels) 6287 6470 6766 6690 6690 0
Ethanol (Million Bushels) 4857 5033 5326 5250 5250 0
D.Total (Million Bushels) 12185 12068 12484 11965 11965 0
Exports (Million Bushels) 1778 2753 2471 1925 1850 -75
Total Usage (Million Bushels) 13963 14821 14956 13890 13815 -75
Carry-Out (Million Bushels) 1919 1235 1377 1267 1342 75
Stocks/Usage 13.7 8.33 9.21 9.12 9.71 0.59

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA reduced its prediction for soybean ending stocks by 15 million bushels from last month, which was somewhat higher than the reduction in trading expectations of 5 million bushels. USDA reduced anticipated crush by 10 million bu (to 2.220 billion bu), however, that was more than offset by an increase in exports of 25 million bu (to 2.015 billion bu.). The USDA kept its prediction for the national average on-farm cash price for 2022–2023 at $14.30.

Soybeans 19/20 20/21 21/22 02/08/2023 03/08/2023 Change
Area Planted (Million Acres) 76.1 83.4 87.2 87.5 87.5 0
Area Harvested (Million Acres) 74.9 82.6 86.3 86.3 86.3 0
Yield per Harvested Acre (Bushels) 47.4 51 51.7 49.5 49.5 0
Carry-In (Million Bushels) 909 525 257 274 274 0
Production (Million Bushels) 3552 4216 4465 4276 4276 0
Imports (Million Bushels) 15 20 16 15 15 0
Total Supply (Million Bushels) 4476 4761 4738 4566 4566 0
Crushings (Million Bushels) 2165 2141 2204 2230 2220 -10
Exports (Million Bushels) 1679 2266 2158 1990 2015 25
Seed (Million Bushels) 97 101 102 102 102 0
Residual (Million Bushels) 11 -4 1 18 19 1
Total Usage (Million Bushels) 3952 4504 4464 4340 4355 15
Carry-Out (Million Bushels) 525 257 274 225 210 -15
Stocks/Usage 13.28 5.71 6.14 5.18 4.82 -0.36

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDA left its wheat ending stocks forecast unchanged this month, whereas traders expected a 5-million-bu. increase. USDA made no changes to its 2022-23 wheat balance sheet. The national average on-farm cash price projection was unchanged at $9.00.

 

Wheat 19/20 20/21 21/22 02/08/2023 03/08/2023 Change
Area Planted (Million Acres) 45.5 44.5 46.7 45.7 45.7 0
Area Harvested (Million Acres) 37.4 36.8 37.1 35.5 35.5 0
Yield per Harvested Acre (Bushels) 51.7 49.7 44.3 46.5 46.5 0
Carry-In (Million Bushels) 1080 1028 845 698 698 0
Production (Million Bushels) 1932 1828 1646 1650 1650 0
Imports (Million Bushels) 104 100 95 120 120 0
Total Supply (Million Bushels) 3116 2956 2587 2468 2468 0
Food (Million Bushels) 962 961 972 975 975 0
Seed (Million Bushels) 62 64 58 70 70 0
Feed & Residual (Million Bushels) 95 93 59 80 80 0
D.Total (Million Bushels) 1118 1117 1088 1125 1125 0
Exports (Million Bushels) 969 994 800 775 775 0
Total Usage (Million Bushels) 2087 2111 1888 1900 1900 0
Carry-Out (Million Bushels) 1028 845 698 568 568 0
Stocks/Usage 49.26 40.03 36.97 29.89 29.89 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The cotton projection was left unchanged this month, whereas the average pre-report estimate expected a 40,000-bale decrease. USDA made no adjustments to its balance sheet. Its average on-farm cash price forecast remained at 83.0 cents.

 

 

 

Worldwide Carryover

  • Corn: 296.46 MMT for 2022–23, up from 295.28 MMT in February, versus 305.69 MMT in 2021–2022
  • Beans: 100.01 MMT for 2022–23, down from 102.03 MMT in February, versus 99.0 MMT in 2021–22.
  • Wheat production is expected to be 267.20 MMT in 2022–2023, down from 269.34 MMT in February. This compared to 271.45 MMT in 2021–2022
  • Cotton production is expected to reach 91.15 million bales in 2022–23, up from 89.08 million bales in February and 86.11 million bales in 2021–2022

 

Global production highlights

  • Brazil beans: 41.0 MMT in February, compared to 33.0 MMT for 2022–23, which is down from 43.9 MMT in 2021–22.
  • Brazil beans will produce 153.0 MMT in 2022–2023, up from 153.0 MMT in February and 129.5 MMT in 2021–2022
  • Argentine wheat production is expected to reach 12.9 MMT in 2022–2023, up from 12.5 MMT in February and 22.15 MMT in 2021–2022
  • Australian wheat production will increase to 39.0 MMT in 2022–23 from 38.0 MMT in February and 36.24 MMT in 2021–2022
  • China wheat production is expected to reach 137.72 MMT in 2022–23, up from 137.72 MMT in February and 136.95 MMT in 2021–2022
  • Canadian wheat production is projected to reach 33.82 MMT in 2022–23, up from 33.82 MMT in February and 22.42 MMT in 2021–2022
  • EU wheat production will amount to 134.70 MMT in 2022–2023, up from 134.70 MMT in February and down from 138.22 MMT in 2021–2022
  • Russia will produce 92.0 MMT of wheat in 2022–2023, up from 92.0 MMT in February and 75.16 MMT in 2021–2022
  • Ukraine wheat production is expected to reach 21.0 MMT in 2022–2023, down from 21.0 MMT in February and 33.01 MMT in 2021–2022
  • China’s corn production is projected to reach 277.2 MMT in 2022–2023, up from 277.2 MMT in February and 272.55 MMT in 2021–2022 respectively.
  • Corn production in Argentina is projected to reach 40.0 MMT in 2022–2023, down from 47.0 MMT in February and 49.5 MMT in 2021–2022
  • Brazilian maize production is expected to reach 125.0 MMT in 2022–2023, up from 125.0 MMT in February and 116.0 MMT in 2021–2022
  • Ukraine’s corn production is expected to reach 27.0 MMT in 2022–2023, down from 27.0 MMT in February and 42.13 MMT in 2021–2022
  • Corn production in South Africa will be 16.7 MMT in 2022–2023, up from 16.7 MMT in February and 16.14 MMT in 2021–2022
  • China’s cotton production is expected to reach 29.5 million bales in 2022–2023, up from 28.5 million bales in February and 26.8 million bales in 2021–2022

 

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.

 

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