USDA WASDE Leaves Corn, Soybeans Unchanged. Wheat Ending Stocks Rose as Expected.
Wheat 💠265.1 MMT
CORN-The USDA did not make many changes to the corn supply and demand for the 2022-23 crop, as the ending stocks remained unchanged at 1.342 billion bushels (bb), despite pre-report estimates that anticipated a reduction. Additionally, the export demand was maintained at 1.85 bb, the same as March, which was another surprise.
Lowered imports by 10 million bushels (mb) to 40 mb, which correspondingly reduced the total supply by 10 mb to 15.147 bb. The report indicated that the Feed and Residual use was 5.275 bb, while Food, Seed and Industrial use decreased by 10 mb to 6.68 bb. However, the ethanol use remained unchanged at 5.25 bb, and the total domestic use was reported at 11.955 bb. The total use of corn was recorded at 13.805 bb, while the farmgate price remained steady at $6.60 a bushel, the same as March.
Globally, the beginning stocks for corn in the 2022-23 crop increased by 1.22 mmt to 306.91 mmt. The total production, estimated at 1,144.50, was lowered by 3.02 mmt. The global ending stocks for 2022-23 were also reduced by 1.11 mmt to 295.35 mmt.
Brazil’s production remained unchanged at 125 mmt for 2022-23, and exports were pegged at 50 mmt, the same as March. Argentina’s production was reduced by 3 mmt to 37 mmt, and its exports were also lowered by 3 mmt to 25 mmt. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s production held firm at 27 mmt, and its exports remained unchanged at 23.5 mmt.
SOYBEANS USDA left soybean ending stocks for 2022-23 unchanged at 210 mb. Traders anticipated USDA would lower its estimate following last month’s Grain Stocks report. USDA made no changes to soybean’s demand categories, leaving exports at 2.015 bb and crush at 2.22 bb. The national average farm gate price was also unchanged at $14.30 per bushel.
Global ending stocks increased by .28 mmt to 100.29 mmt. USDA lowered global soybean production by 5.5 mmt, but also reduced its crush estimates, resulting in very little adjustment to the overall stocks figure. USDA increased its forecast for Brazilian soybean production by 1 mmt to 154 mmt, while slashing Argentina’s output to 27 mmt from 33 mmt.
WHEAT– USDA increased U.S. wheat ending stocks for the 2022-2023 season to 598 mb, exceeding analysts’ pre-report estimates of 581 mb. It is the lowest ending-stocks number in nine years.
Average wheat farm gate price was estimated at $8.90 per bushel, a drop from $9.00 last month.
Globally, old-crop wheat ending stocks were projected at 265.05 mmt down from 267.20 mmt in the March estimate. In South America, USDA estimates Argentina’s ending stocks at 2.53 mmt. That’s a slight decrease from 2.51 mmt in March. Brazil’s ending stocks are estimated at 1.78 mmt, an increase from 1.08 mmt in March.
Ukrainian ending stocks are estimated at 3.34 mmt, a decrease from 4.17 mmt in the March estimates. Russian ending stocks are left unchanged at 14.39 mmt.
USDA estimates Ukraine’s exports at 14.50 mmt, an increase from 13.50 mmt in March. Russian exports are estimated at 45.0 mmt, an increase from 43.50 mmt in March.