USDA’s Crop Production Report: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Outlook
Grain Market & Commodity Futures News – Paradigm Futures
Corn:
- Corn 15.064 billion bu⬇️ from 15.134 billion bu
- Yield 173 bpa ⬇️ from 173.8 bpa
- Ending stocks 2.111 billion bu
Soybeans:
- Soybeans 4.104 billion bu ⬇️ from 4.146 billion bu
- Yield 49.6 bpa ⬇️ 50.1 bpa
- Ending Stocks 220 million bu
In the latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), adjustments to crop production and ending stocks have been made for corn, soybeans, and wheat. These changes are significant factors in the agricultural landscape, impacting both domestic and global markets. Here’s a breakdown of the key findings:
Corn
The USDA reduced the production estimate for the 2023-24 corn crop by 70 million bushels, bringing it to 15.064 billion bushels (bb). This adjustment aligned with market expectations. Despite this change, the total harvested acres remained constant at 87.1 million acres.
Furthermore, ending stocks for the 2023-24 crop witnessed a decrease of 110 million bushels, reaching 2.111 bb. Additionally, the carryover old-crop ending stocks were trimmed by 91 million bushels, resulting in the effective reduction of new-crop beginning stocks to 1.361 bb.
On the demand side, Feed and Residual use experienced a reduction of 25 million bushels, settling at 5.6 bb. The Total Food, Seed, and Industrial use for 2023-24 reached 6.715 bb, while ethanol use remained unchanged at 5.3 bb. The total domestic use was projected at 12.315 bb, with a decrease of 25 million bushels. Exports for the new crop were also curtailed by 25 million bushels, down to 2.025 bb.
The farmgate price for the 2023-24 crop is estimated at $4.95 per bushel, signifying a five-cent increase from the previous month.
Soybeans
The USDA reported soybean production at 4.10 billion bushels (bb), aligning with the lower end of market expectations. This figure results from adjustments made to the national average yield. October’s estimate at 49.6 bushels per acre. This is reflecting a 0.5 bushel decrease from the previous month.
While ending stocks for 2023-24 remained constant at 220 million bushels, the USDA implemented changes in various demand categories. Notably, the crush estimate was increased by 10 million bushels. Exports were reduced by 35 million bushels, and the residual estimate was raised by 2 million bushels. The national average farm gate price retained its position at $12.90 per bushel.
On a global scale, the USDA made a reduction, trimming 2023-24 ending stocks by 3.63 million metric tons (mmt) to 115.62 mmt, falling below market expectations. This decrease primarily resulted from lower beginning stocks, decreased production, and a slight increase in crush. The soybean production estimates for Argentina and Brazil stand at 48 mmt and 163 mmt, respectively.
Wheat
U.S. wheat production at 1.812 billion bushels (bb), marking an increase from September’s estimate of 1.734 bb. Furthermore, ending stocks saw an increase, rising from 615 million bushels in September to 670 million bushels.
Wheat exports, on the other hand, remained steady at 700 million bushels, aligning with the figures reported in September. However, the farmgate price of wheat saw a decrease, dropping to $7.30, a decline from the previous month’s $7.50.
Global ending stocks were estimated at 258.13 million metric tons, showing a decrease from September’s 258.61 million metric tons. In terms of global production, the numbers revealed an increase, with global wheat production standing at 783.43 million metric tons, up from September’s 787.34 million metric tons.
Significant production estimates from various countries included Russia, where production remained unchanged at 85 million metric tons compared to September. Ukraine’s wheat exports were held at 11.0 million metric tons, and Australia’s wheat production was reported at 24.5 million metric tons, a decrease from the previous month’s 26 million metric tons. Meanwhile, Argentina’s wheat production held steady at 16.5 million metric tons.
The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.
