CPI MoM
- 0.2%
- Previous 0.1%
- Forecast 0.3%
CPI YoY
- 3.0%
- Previous: 4.0%
- Forecast: 3.1%
Core CPI MoM
- 0.2%
- Previous: 0.4%
- Forecast: 0.3%
Core CPI YoY
- 4.8%
- Previous: 5.3%
- Forecast: 5.0%
CPI cools ahead of FOMC Meeting at months end.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released new Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday, which is one measure of inflation. The data revealed that the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, increased by 3.0% in June compared to the previous year. This suggests another month of cooling inflation, following a 4.0% unadjusted year-over-year change in May.
June’s change closely aligned with the year-over-year CPI forecast, which anticipated a decline in inflation. Throughout the year, inflation has been steadily decreasing, with a forecast of 3.1%. Prior to June 2022, when inflation reached its peak at 9.1%, CPI had been consistently rising since the second half of 2020. However, since then, the year-over-year CPI has fallen every month, and the new data indicates 12 months of declining inflation.
According to seasonally adjusted data, CPI ticked up by 0.2% from May to June. The month-over-month percent change was expected to exceed the percent change observed in May, with an increase of 0.3% in June compared to a 0.1% increase in May.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, experienced a 4.8% increase from June 2022 to this past June. This growth is lower than the forecasted increase of 5.0% and the year-over-year growth in May, which was 5.3%.
According to seasonally adjusted data, Core CPI inched up by 0.2% from May to June, falling short of the predicted increase of 0.3%. The latest month-over-month percent change was also lower than the 0.4% growth observed from March to May.
Although inflation is still declining in the US, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, particularly when considering the overall year-over-year CPI measure. Despite ten consecutive interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates in June. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled in two weeks.
