US Quarterly Grain Stocks
- Corn: 4.106 bb vs. est of 4.255 bb 4.349 bb last year
- Soybeans: 796 mb vs. 812 mb 968 mb last year
- Wheat 580 mb vs. 611 mb est 698 mb last year
The quarterly corn stocks experienced a significant decrease, dropping from 7.401 billion bushels at the beginning of March to 4.106 billion bushels by June 1. This figure is also lower than the year-ago results of 4.349 billion bushels. Analysts had generally expected a higher total, with an average trade guess of 4.255 billion bushels. However, individual estimates ranged between 4.086 billion and 4.410 billion bushels.
Similarly, quarterly soybean stocks also saw a decline, moving from 1.685 billion bushels in March to 796 million bushels by June 1. This figure is lower than both the year-ago totals of 968 million bushels and the average trade guess of 812 million bushels. Individual analyst estimates for soybean stocks ranged between 750 million and 920 million bushels.
The lower-than-expected stocks for both corn and soybeans indicate a tighter supply situation than initially anticipated. These numbers have implications for the respective markets and may influence commodity prices moving forward.
- Corn: 94.096 million acres vs. 91.996 in March
- Soybeans: 83.505 million acres vs. 87.505 in March
- Wheat: 49.628 million acres vs. 49.855 in March
USDA’s June 30 Acreage Report caused a stir, particularly in the soybean markets. The report revealed a surprising count of 83.5 million acres of U.S. soybeans planted in 2023, catching everyone off guard. The unexpected data sent nearby July 2023 futures prices and new crop November 2023 futures soaring by over $0.70 per bushel. The soybean market experienced a significant impact from this revelation.
Furthermore, USDA’s estimation for corn acres exceeded expectations, with 94.1 million acres anticipated to be planted this spring. This figure was nearly one million acres higher than the highest pre-report market estimate. As a result, corn futures experienced a decline of $0.15 to $0.18 per bushel (3%) shortly after the news broke.
The USDA’s June 30 Acreage Report had far-reaching effects, causing significant market reactions in both the soybean and corn sectors. The unexpected soybean acreage count sparked a bullish response, while the higher-than-anticipated corn acreage resulted in a bearish market reaction.
The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.