2025 Agriculture Year in Review 2025 was not a year of easy money in grain markets. Prices chopped, margins stayed tight, and most of the opportunity came from disciplined risk management rather than big, trending moves. Corn, soybeans, wheat, cattle, and hogs all told slightly different stories, but one theme
The Twelve Days of Hedging: Practical Risk Management for Real Markets As the year winds down, planning season begins. Budgets get finalized. Procurement teams negotiate supply. CFOs work to bring more visibility to earnings. And across the real economy, one question quietly matters more than most: How do we manage
Spread Trading vs Outright Futures in Commodities Spread trading vs straight futures is one of the most important decisions a commodity trader makes. Both strategies offer opportunity, but they behave very differently when volatility hits the market. Understanding how each works, how risk is expressed, and which approach best aligns
Two Clocks, One Market How Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones see the same system – differently When assessing the current market environment, Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones are often presented as holding opposing views. In reality, they largely agree on the core observations. They see the same distortions,
Why “Flat” Energy Forecasts Coexist with + $50B of LNG CapEx Energy executives are forecasting range-bound prices — at the same time the U.S. Gulf Coast is absorbing tens of billions of dollars in LNG and gas infrastructure. That isn’t a contradiction. It’s how short-cycle shale and long-cycle infrastructure coexist
NOPA Reports Record November Soybean Crush The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its November crush report today. The data showed continued strength in U.S. soybean processing. However, product inventories continue to rise. November Crush Remains Historically Strong NOPA members crushed 216.0 million bushels of soybeans in November. This marked
Japan’s Biofuels Pivot: Key Policy Shifts, Declining Fuel Demand, and Rapid Growth in SAF Japan’s biofuels market is undergoing a significant transformation. Although the country still meets its long-standing ethanol mandate primarily through ETBE blending, several new policies are reshaping incentives across the liquid fuels sector. As a result, refiners,
Fed Cuts Rates and Begins T-Bill Purchases as Liquidity Takes Priority The Federal Reserve ended the year with a rate cut and a new liquidity program. The central bank lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%. It also announced that T-bill purchases will start on December
December WASDE: Corn Tightens, Wheat Builds, and Soybeans Hold Steady as Global Balances Shift USDA’s December WASDE report delivered a mix of tightening and loosening fundamentals across the major row-crop sectors, giving producers and traders new signals as we close out the year. While the U.S. corn balance sheet firmed
Row-Crop Producers Face Key Deadlines Under New $12B Farmer Bridge Assistance Program USDA has rolled out a major component of the $12 billion farm aid package announced this week: the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) Program, providing up to $11 billion in one-time payments to U.S. row-crop producers for the 2025
Energy Markets Update: Inventories Build as Geopolitics Support Prices The energy market is sending mixed signals as futures prices firm while U.S. inventory data turn more bearish at the margin. January WTI crude oil (CLF26) is trading higher, up 1.30% on the day, with January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) also in
November 2025 Market Recap: Grains, Energy, Livestock & the Federal Reserve November brought a decisive shift in market tone across commodities. Grains steadied as export demand improved and South American planting progressed unevenly. Energy markets continued to wrestle with a growing global supply cushion, while livestock attempted to recover from
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