Jobs Report Beats Expectations, By A Lot
Jobs Surprise to the Upside: January NFP Blows Past Expectations. Will It Hold After Revisions? January’s Employment Situation report is not a “slowdown” print. Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 against a consensus band clustered around 60,000–70,000. Following a prior month of just 50,000. That is a clear upside surprise on the headline, not evidence […]
February WASDE: Soybeans Build on Brazil, Corn Exports Climb
February WASDE: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Outlook February’s WASDE leaves U.S. corn and wheat balance sheets mostly steady, with only incremental changes, while soybeans increasingly hinge on a larger South American crop and a steady build in world stocks outside China. Corn: Higher Exports, Comfortable Carry For 2025/26, USDA keeps U.S. corn yield at 186.5 […]
India 2025/26 Oilseeds Report, Imports Still Key
India Oilseeds Update: Small Adjustments, Same Big Picture USDA FAS New Delhi’s February 4, 2026 Oilseeds and Products Update makes incremental changes to India’s 2025/26 oilseed balance, but it does not alter the broader story. India remains heavily reliant on imported vegetable oils, while domestic moves in rapeseed and soybeans only slightly adjust the margins. […]
JOLTS Job openings Decline in December
JOLTS: Job Openings Slip to 6.5 Million as Labor Demand Cools The December JOLTS report (released February 5) shows U.S. labor demand cooling into year-end. Total nonfarm job openings fell to 6.5 million. That was down 386,000 from November and down 966,000 from a year earlier. The openings rate held around 3.9%. The drop showed […]
U.S. India Trade Update
U.S.–India Trade Reset: Tariff Slash, Oil Quid Pro Quo, and Market Signal Feb 2026 The U.S. has dropped its tariff wall on Indian imports from 50% to 18%—a blunt reset framed around energy leverage. In exchange, India is expected to cut off Russian oil and ramp up U.S. purchases across the board. Trump claims India […]
The Government Shutdown, Where Things Stand Now & Why.
As of the writing of this article the U.S. Government Shutdown is awaiting a vote in the House, which is expected to happen late in the afternoon on 2/3/26. There is currently a procedural vote expected to take place prior, around 11am (CST) The Partial Government Shutdown. What’s Impacted, and Why This Could Be a […]
U.S. Cattle Inventory at 75 Year Low
U.S. Cattle Inventory Contracts to 75-Year Low at 86.2 Million Head USDA’s January 30 Cattle report confirms the beef herd’s ongoing decline, with total inventory down 0.4% year-over-year to 86.2 million head. Tight supplies persist amid high prices and stalled rebuilding, pressuring feeders and packers into 2026. Key takeaways Total cattle at 86.2 million head, […]
A Hawk Takes the Helm: What a Warsh Fed Means
Who Is Kevin Warsh — and What a Warsh Fed Would Actually Mean Kevin Warsh has emerged as the leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. If confirmed, the shift would be more than cosmetic. Warsh represents a different operating philosophy: tighter liquidity, fewer market rescues, and a central bank focused first […]
Same Inflation, Different Decision: The Fed’s Hold Was Not Neutral
The Fed Hold Was Not Neutral, and It Was Not Just About Inflation The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. The Fed blamed persistent inflation and said it needs more confirmation before it eases again. That story sounds tidy and defensible. However, it still leaves out the part markets trade. The Decision […]
AG Web talks to Paradigm about Grains, Brazil and Biofuels
Grains Find Support as Brazil, Biofuels, and Macro Forces Align A quick breakdown of key drivers shaping soybeans, corn, and wheat — plus the full video interview. Market Overview Grain markets are showing renewed strength as soybeans, corn, and wheat respond to a mix of tightening export logistics, policy optimism, and shifting macro conditions. In […]
