As global sugar markets prepare for the 2025/26 marketing year, key producing nations are adjusting to evolving trade flows, climate conditions, and domestic policies. In this report, we break down the latest USDA Sugar Annuals for El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, and Australia—three strategically important producers with distinct challenges and opportunities.
The trends emerging from these reports offer valuable insight not only for exporters and traders but also for futures market participants watching price volatility, basis movements, and shifting trade volumes.
🇸🇻 El Salvador Sugar Supply & Use
| Marketing Year | Production (Thousand MT) | Exports (Thousand MT) | Ending Stocks (Thousand MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 754 | 430 | 34 |
| 2024/25 | 706 | 427 | 78 |
| 2025/26 | 740 | 506 | 30 |
🇩🇴 Dominican Republic Sugar Supply & Use
| Marketing Year | Production (Thousand MT) | Exports (Thousand MT) | Ending Stocks (Thousand MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 495 | 185 | 116 |
| 2024/25 | 590 | 190 | 124 |
| 2025/26 | 600 | 190 | 141 |
🇦🇺 Australia Sugar Supply & Use
| Marketing Year | Production (Million MT) | Exports (Million MT) | Ending Stocks (Million MT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | 4.10 | 3.15 | 0.784 |
| 2024/25 | 3.85 | 2.70 | 1.079 |
| 2025/26 | 3.80 | 3.10 | 0.837 |
El Salvador: Production Stabilizes, Exports Pivot to Asia
El Salvador’s sugar sector is finding new momentum, following a modest production dip in 2024/25. Improved mill efficiency, favorable rainfall, and renewed interest in export markets are pushing the 2025/26 production forecast to 740,000 metric tons (MT).
- Production Recovery: Sugar output is expected to rebound from 706,000 MT to 740,000 MT due to better irrigation management and technological upgrades at mills.
- 🚢 Export Growth: Shipments are forecast to rise to 506,000 MT, a 19% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by new sales to China.
- Tight Ending Stocks: Inventories are projected to fall by over 60%, from 78,000 MT to just 30,000 MT, as supply is redirected to external markets.
Takeaway
While the U.S. remains the largest export destination under WTO quotas, China has emerged as a new priority market for raw sugar. The sector also sees long-term potential in ethanol, pending legislative support. With nearly 300,000 hectares of unused farmland, any policy favoring renewable blending could ignite massive expansion in both acreage and mill investment.
Dominican Republic: Regulatory Clarity Fuels a Production Surge
The Dominican Republic’s sugar industry is poised for a strong 2025/26. Following the resolution of U.S. labor restrictions on sugar imports from Central Romana, producers have increased investment in field operations and mill capacity.
Key Highlights:
- Production Surge: Output is expected to rise from 590,000 MT to 600,000 MT, supported by improved weather and expanded cane planting.
- Quota Fulfillment: DR aims to fully deliver its U.S. TRQ allocation of 189,343 MT, the largest of any country in the program.
- Stock Build-Up: Ending stocks are set to climb to 141,000 MT, giving local suppliers greater flexibility to respond to short-term demand fluctuations.
Additional Insight:
Tourism growth is quietly fueling domestic consumption, especially in premium and foodservice channels. Producers are also diversifying by extracting value from co-products like furfural and bagasse electricity, while ethanol blending mandates remain on pause. Regulatory stability—particularly access to the U.S. market—remains the linchpin of sector performance.
Australia: Weather Woes Continue, But Exports Regain Momentum
Australia’s sugar sector has battled through weather-related challenges for two consecutive years. But despite reduced output, the country’s world-class export infrastructure and global customer base are helping to stabilize shipments.
Key Highlights:
- Production Slips: 2025/26 production is forecast at 3.8 million metric tons (MMT), down from 4.1 MMT two seasons ago, due to persistent wet weather and delayed harvesting.
- Export Rebound: Raw sugar exports are expected to rise back to 3.1 MMT, following logistics recovery and a solid order pipeline in Asia.
- Inventory Normalization: Ending stocks will decline to 837,000 MT, after spiking in 2024/25 when port slowdowns left sugar stranded at origin.
Additional Insight:
Australia continues to benefit from strong demand in Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, while a weaker Australian dollar has helped maintain competitiveness. Domestic consumption is growing slowly, led by demographic rather than dietary changes. The longer-term question is whether Australia can sustain exports at current levels with continued acreage decline and environmental pressure on water access.
As global sugar dynamics shift—from trade partnerships to weather disruptions.
Production variability and trade shifts are increasing price range and basis spread potential
Markets aren’t just moved by weather—they’re moved by law. Regulatory wins (or losses) like the DR’s quota reinstatement can change flows fast.
