Global Coffee Outlook: Vietnam and Brazil Chart Diverging Courses in 2025/26
Focus Keyphrase: global coffee outlook 2025
Meta Description: Vietnam and Brazil project diverging coffee production and trade trends for 2025/26. Brazil faces Arabica setbacks, while Vietnam expands Robusta output and exports.
Overview
As the global coffee market enters the 2025/26 marketing year, the two largest Robusta producers—Vietnam and Brazil—are navigating distinctly different paths. While Vietnam is seeing strong gains in production and shifting toward processed coffee exports, Brazil faces setbacks in Arabica output due to prolonged drought and high temperatures. Nevertheless, both countries are benefiting from elevated global coffee prices, reinforcing coffee’s strategic value in their agricultural economies.
Vietnam: Expansion Fueled by Prices, Investment, and Demand
✅ Production Outlook
Vietnam’s coffee production is forecast to rise to 31 million 60-kg bags (GBE), a 7% increase from the prior year. Robusta dominates with 30 million bags. This expansion is driven by:
- High domestic prices encouraging farmer investment
- Favorable weather in the Central Highlands
- Strong replanting programs supported by WASI
✅ Domestic Demand Rising
Domestic consumption is projected to increase 22.5% to 4.9 million bags, driven by a growing middle class, tourism, and rapid growth in café chains and home brewing trends.
✅ Shift Toward Value-Added Exports
Vietnam’s green bean exports dipped 27% in early 2024/25 but are expected to rebound to 27 million bags in 2025/26. Key trends include:
- Surging export prices ($5,630/ton)
- Asia emerging as premium buyer (e.g., Philippines paying $4,424/ton)
- Processed coffee exports forecast to reach 3.3 million bags
Vietnam Coffee Export Trends
Brazil: Arabica Hit by Drought, Robusta Emerges Strong
✅ Production Outlook
Brazil’s total output is forecast at 65 million 60-kg bags, up slightly from 64.7 million in 2024/25. Key details:
- Arabica: down 6.4% to 40.9 million bags due to drought and negative biennial cycle
- Robusta: up 15% to 24.1 million bags, led by Espírito Santo and Bahia
✅ Domestic Consumption and Inflation Pressures
Total consumption forecast at 22.28 million bags. Inflation has slowed growth, with consumers shifting to soluble and lower-cost products.
✅ Export Outlook: Volume Down, Value Up
Exports are expected to fall to 41.75 million bags due to tight supply, yet high prices are driving record revenues. Highlights:
- Arabica averaged $437/bag in April 2025 (up 108% YoY)
- Soluble coffee exports continue expanding, especially to the U.S. and Russia
- Q1 2025 exports fell 11%, but revenue rose 54% YoY
Brazil’s Costly Coffee Breakdown
✅ Policy and Infrastructure
Brazil is responding with:
- BRL 6.88 billion from FUNCAFE for financing and crop support
- USD 1.4+ billion for infrastructure upgrades to ease port congestion
- New VAT system to simplify ag taxation, effective 2026
Key Comparison Table
| Metric | Vietnam | Brazil |
|---|---|---|
| Total Production | 31 million bags | 65 million bags |
| Arabica | 1 million bags | 40.9 million bags |
| Robusta | 30 million bags | 24.1 million bags |
| Domestic Consumption | 4.9 million bags | 22.28 million bags |
| Exports | 27 million bags | 41.75 million bags |
Conclusion
Vietnam and Brazil are both adapting to the evolving global coffee landscape—but in different ways. Vietnam is leveraging high prices to expand and modernize, while Brazil is navigating production volatility with policy support and infrastructure upgrades. Both countries are trending toward **processed and premium products**, redefining their role in the global coffee market.
