Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the world’s top producer of both sugarcane and sugar for the 2025/26 marketing year, despite recent weather challenges and global market volatility. According to the latest USDA Sugar Annual, Brazil’s total sugarcane production is forecast at 671 million metric tons (MMT), and sugar output is projected to hit 44.7 MMT (raw value). This robust performance is set to further strengthen Brazil’s role as a critical player in the world sugar market.
2025/26 Production Forecasts and Weather Impacts
- Sugarcane production: 671 MMT forecast, with 618 MMT from the Center-South (CS) region and 53 MMT from the North-Northeast.
- Area planted: Slight increase to 9.85 million hectares, continuing a long-term trend despite some areas switching to more profitable grains like soybeans and corn.
- Key challenge: Severe drought and wildfires in 2024, especially in São Paulo and Minas Gerais, reduced cane quality and disrupted planting schedules. While these events did not drastically reduce 2024/25 output, repercussions may linger into 2025/26, potentially affecting yields and harvest logistics.
Sugar/Ethanol Production Mix and Prices
- Production mix for 2025/26: 51% of sugarcane for sugar and 49% for ethanol—showing a shift toward sugar as global prices remain favorable.
- Domestic price trends: Crystal sugar prices in Brazil’s domestic market averaged BRL 152.06 per 50-kg bag (April 2024–March 2025), about 4.7% below the prior year.
Export Outlook: Resilient Despite Volatility
- Sugar exports: Forecast to rise to 35.8 MMT (raw value) for 2025/26—a 710,000 MT increase over last year.
- Top destinations: Major buyers include China, Indonesia, UAE, India, and the U.S., with China alone accounting for over 3 MMT in the past year.
- U.S. Tariff-Rate Quota: Brazil received an allocation of 155,993 MTRV for 2025 (about 14% of the U.S. TRQ), confirming its status as a key U.S. supplier.
- Trade headwinds: Despite global price volatility and new U.S. tariffs, Brazil’s strong production and competitive export prices keep shipments robust.
Brazil Sugarcane Production 2000–2026
Source: USDA Sugar Annual, April 2025.
Key Factors to Watch in 2025/26
- Climate: Weather remains a significant risk, with El Niño/La Niña transitions potentially impacting rainfall and yields. Wildfire impacts from 2024 could necessitate replanting and affect future harvests.
- Policy shifts: New U.S. and Brazilian tariff policies and currency fluctuations are adding to global price volatility, but Brazil’s production advantage remains strong.
- Technological advances: Ongoing R&D by Brazil’s top agronomic institutes is boosting resilience and yield through improved sugarcane varieties.
Summary:
Brazil’s sugar sector has shown impressive resilience in the face of drought, wildfires, and market turbulence, with 2025/26 set to see near-record production and sustained export growth. With global supply tightening due to challenges in other producing countries (like India and Thailand), Brazil’s output will be critical for world market balance.
