Ukraine’s grain and feed market in Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 is expected to decline significantly due to lower production volumes and limited beginning stocks. Total grain production is 13% lower than in MY 2023/24, with the largest drop in corn production (-24%). As a result, export estimates have been reduced by 26%. Despite these challenges, Ukraine’s Black Sea ports are operational, enabling exporters to regain access to traditional markets while continuing to rely on EU trade liberalization policies.
This report provides a detailed analysis of Ukraine’s grain production, consumption trends, trade dynamics, and policy measures, with implications for global grain markets.
Production Trends
1. Wheat Production: Stable but Facing Domestic Price Pressures
- MY 2024/25 production forecast: 22.9 million metric tons (MMT), nearly unchanged from MY 2023/24.
- Domestic wheat prices are rising, which could encourage farmers to delay sales in anticipation of higher future returns.
- Ukraine’s milling wheat segment remains in high demand, both domestically and for export.
2. Barley Production: Declining Output and Higher Demand
- MY 2024/25 barley production is estimated at 5.9 MMT, a 3% decrease from the previous year.
- Exportable barley stocks were largely depleted by January 2025, leading to rising prices in the domestic market.
- Despite the decline in production, barley exports are expected to increase by 5%.
3. Corn Production: Sharp Drop Amidst Trade Challenges
- MY 2024/25 corn production is estimated at 24.6 MMT, representing a 24% decline from MY 2023/24.
- Corn remains the backbone of Ukraine’s grain exports, but its lower output will constrain trade volumes.
- Harvest data suggests 96% of planted corn had been harvested by November 2024, with total yields below initial forecasts.
4. Rye Production: Becoming a Niche Crop
- MY 2024/25 rye production is forecast at 190,000 MT, down 18% year-over-year.
- Rye production has decreased significantly in recent years, making it a less critical crop for Ukraine’s agricultural economy.
Export Trends and Trade Dynamics
1. Total Export Forecasts: A 26% Decline Due to Supply Constraints
- MY 2024/25 total grain exports are projected to decline by 26% compared to MY 2023/24.
- Export forecasts for key grains:
- Wheat: 15.0 MMT (-19%)
- Corn: 19.6 MMT (-33%)
- Barley: 2.6 MMT (+5%)
- Rye: 12,000 MT (six-fold increase)
2. Strong Early-Season Export Performance (July–December 2024)
- Wheat exports (July–December 2024): 9.6 MMT, a 53% increase year-over-year.
- Corn exports (October–December 2024): 7.0 MMT, up 28% from last year.
- Barley exports (July–December 2024): 2.0 MMT, a 211% increase, driven by strong demand from China and the EU.
3. Key Export Destinations
- Wheat: EU (34%), Indonesia (17%), Vietnam (9%), Egypt and Thailand (7% each).
- Corn: EU (56%), Türkiye (24%).
- Barley: China (38%), EU (18%), Libya (12%).
4. The Role of Black Sea Ports in Stabilizing Trade
- Despite Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Ukraine has successfully resumed independent operations at its major Black Sea ports (Odesa, Pivdenny, and Chornomorsk).
- Ukraine is reducing reliance on the EU for transshipment, as direct Black Sea exports have improved logistics and market access.
- However, the overall decline in grain production and ending stocks will limit future export growth.
Consumption Trends and Domestic Market Factors
1. Shifts in Feed Consumption
- Barley had been the cheapest feed grain, but its depletion led to increased demand for wheat and corn as substitutes.
- MY 2024/25 feed consumption estimates (in thousand metric tons – TMT):
- Wheat: 2,800 TMT (up from 2,300 TMT last year)
- Corn: 4,100 TMT (slight decrease)
- Barley: 2,300 TMT (down from 2,800 TMT)
2. Food Consumption Adjustments Due to War and Refugee Crisis
- Ukraine’s population decline (due to war-related migration) has lowered domestic grain consumption.
- The UNHCR estimates 6.9 million Ukrainian refugees remain abroad, reducing wheat demand for food use.
- Food consumption of wheat has been adjusted downward, reflecting lower per capita demand.
Market Outlook and Key Considerations
1. Ukraine’s Competitive Position in the Global Market
- EU market access remains crucial, but Ukraine is actively reclaiming traditional markets in Asia and North Africa.
- The geopolitical landscape and trade policy shifts will influence Ukraine’s ability to maintain competitive pricing.
2. Impact of Rising Domestic Grain Prices
- Wheat and barley prices are rising, leading some farmers to delay sales in anticipation of better returns.
- This could limit wheat exports in later MY 2024/25, as domestic milling demand competes for available supply.
3. The Role of Black Sea Ports in Sustaining Export Volumes
- Ukraine’s ability to operate out of its Black Sea ports remains a key factor in future export performance.
- Further disruptions in port logistics or energy grid failures could impact trade efficiency.
4. Uncertainty in Future Corn Export Availability
- Corn exports are likely to decline further in the second half of MY 2024/25, as production shortfalls impact market supply.
- Strong demand from the EU and Türkiye may drive price fluctuations, depending on harvest conditions in competing export markets.
Conclusion
Ukraine’s MY 2024/25 grain market is defined by lower production, depleted stocks, and declining export volumes. While early-season exports have performed strongly, tightening supplies and rising domestic prices may slow trade in the latter half of the marketing year.
Ukraine’s Black Sea port operations have improved export capacity, reducing reliance on EU transshipment routes. However, supply constraints, geopolitical risks, and shifting market demand will shape Ukraine’s grain export performance in the coming months.
The ability to stabilize domestic grain prices, manage logistics efficiently, and secure alternative trade routes will be critical to ensuring long-term market resilience.
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