$61.00  0.29%  
$11.62  0.43%  
$54.00  1.22%  
$36.29  1.65%  
$94.35  0.02%  
$67.28  0.49%  
$18.96  0.37%  
$78.65  0.96%  
$65.82  0.23%  
$121.76  0.12%  
$71.48  0.04%  
$98.77  0.11%  
$99.43  0.33%  
$57.99  0.38%  
$29.10  0.24%  
$19.34  1.07%  
$23.97  0.04%  
$5.32  1.12%  
$19.56  1.24%  
$214.78  1.55%  

Mixed Trading Trends and Sector Insights


Corn and Soybeans Try to Bounce, Wheat Sees 6th Day of Selling: Cattle Mixed

Watch Michelle Rook interview with Paradigm Futures Kent Beadle

Grain Market Dynamics

In the current trading environment, the grain markets are exhibiting mixed trends. While there have been attempts at a recovery, the overall market remains largely oversold following a five to six-day decline. The wheat market, in particular, is facing significant pressure, which is in turn dragging down corn prices. This is largely due to substantial liquidation in overseas markets, such as the Paris milling market. Despite earlier hopes that dry forecasts in the Black Sea region might provide some support, the market has instead entered a phase of significant liquidation.

The upcoming USDA report is also influencing market behavior, with traders anticipating higher yield numbers. Recent rainfall in Western Kansas and generally good conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt are contributing to these expectations. This anticipation of increased yields is exacerbating the downward correction in wheat and, consequently, affecting corn as well.

Speculative Positions and Profit-Taking

The wheat market has experienced a notable run-up, leading to some profit-taking activities. Despite this, large speculators in U.S. wheat futures contracts remain net short. This net short position appears to be growing in anticipation of the USDA report, indicating a bearish outlook on wheat.

Similarly, the corn market is under pressure from fund selling. There is a general sentiment that the market is comfortable with the initial good start to the growing season. However, some traders believe that the USDA data may be somewhat misleading. Historical comparisons indicate that the current planting pace is not as advanced as it may seem, particularly when considering the slow planting years of 2019 and 2022.

Soybean Market Challenges

The soybean market is facing its own set of challenges. Supply issues are compounded by demand-side headwinds. Although there has been some improvement in export demand compared to last year, the overall demand remains weak. This is reflected in the recent slowdown of domestic crush operations, as highlighted by the fats and oils report.

There are concerns that unplanted corn acres might lead to an increase in soybean acres. However, profitability issues for both corn and soybeans are influencing planting decisions. The current prices do not favor planting either crop, potentially leading to some planned soybean acres being left unplanted as well.

Livestock Market Trends

Cattle Market

In the cattle market, live cattle prices are slightly higher, while feeder cattle prices are lower. The market recently experienced some end-of-month profit-taking, partly triggered by concerns over China’s delisting of a Colorado JBS plant due to ractopamine. Despite this, the overall long-term outlook for cattle remains bullish, supported by strong fundamentals and expectations of high cattle prices.

Hog Market

The hog market is facing significant challenges, with new lows being recorded. The cash trade has been stagnant, with prices remaining in a sideways trading range for the past seven to eight weeks. The futures market had priced in substantial premiums, anticipating higher cash prices typical of the season. However, this has not materialized, leading to extensive liquidation of long positions. As a result, the market is now testing contract lows and will need support from the cash market to initiate any meaningful rebound.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.

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