Geopolitical Shockwaves: Oil Spikes and Equity Futures Rattle After Israel-Iran Strike – June 13, 2025
Energy markets saw oil surging while U.S. equity futures remain volatile after a series of coordinated strikes where Israel targeted Iran nuclear sites. The attack also killing multiple senior Iranian military officials overnight. Most notably, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, Gen. Hossein Salami, commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guards. This escalation, now dubbed Operation Rising Lion, has reignited geopolitical risk across the Middle East and pushed crude oil sharply higher. Here’s what we know so far—and how the charts are reacting.
📌 What We Know Now
Operation Rising Lion has resulted in the most significant Iranian leadership loss since the 1980s. Israeli strikes reportedly killed multiple top-ranking figures in a decapitation-style campaign targeting Iran’s military, political, and nuclear command structure. As of this morning, here’s what has been confirmed:
- Military Generals:
- Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri – Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces and Iran’s second-highest military official. Replaced by Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi.
- Gen. Hossein Salami – Commander in Chief of the IRGC, Iran’s primary military force. Replaced by Gen. Mohammad Pakpour.
- Gen. Gholamali Rashid – Deputy Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces.
- Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh – Head of the IRGC Aerospace Force, responsible for Iran’s missile program.
- Politicians:
- Ali Shamkhani – Senior advisor to Ayatollah Khamenei and former top negotiator in nuclear talks with the U.S. Killed according to Iranian media and senior officials.
- Nuclear Scientists:
- Fereydoun Abbasi – Former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.
- Mohammad Mehdi Tehranji – Renowned physicist and president of Islamic Azad University in Tehran.
- Oil markets surged on fears of Iranian retaliation targeting energy infrastructure or Strait of Hormuz shipping.
- Equity futures tumbled then bounced as risk recalibration swept through global markets.
🛢️ Crude Oil – WTI (CLN25)
WTI crude exploded higher overnight, soaring from the $68 handle to just shy of $78. The move was driven by risk premium pricing amid fears of Iranian retaliation on oil infrastructure or Hormuz shipping traffic. Price has since pulled back to around $73.76 as the initial panic unwinds.
- High: $77.46
- Support: $73.00, then $71.50
- Resistance: $75.00, then $77.50
- Outlook: Bullish consolidation; upward bias remains while above $73
🛢️ Brent Crude (QAQ25)
Brent followed a nearly identical path, ripping through key resistance at $70 and reaching intraday highs near $78 before easing back to the $74.70 area. The strength of the move confirms global sensitivity to supply chain threats in the Middle East.
- High: $78.14
- Support: $74.00, then $72.30
- Resistance: $76.00, then $78.00
- Outlook: Still bullish; watch for continued buying on dips into support
📉 S&P 500 E-mini (ESM25)
U.S. equity futures were rocked in the initial aftermath, with the E-mini S&P falling from 6,049 to lows near 5,925. However, strong dip-buying has helped recover much of the move, with futures now stabilizing around the 6,001 level. Volatility remains high as markets weigh risk escalation vs. cooling inflation and rate cut hopes.
- Low: 5,925
- Current: 6,001
- Resistance: 6,049
- Support: 5,930
- Outlook: Rangebound with downside risk; bias shifts bullish only above 6,049
🔍 Market Summary
Markets are in a textbook geopolitical shock cycle: oil up, equities cautious, and cross-asset flows shifting into safe-haven plays. With Brent and WTI holding elevated ground and the S&P futures in bounce mode, traders should expect two-way volatility. If the situation escalates further—especially with threats to Hormuz or direct U.S. involvement—crude could target $80+ swiftly.
Stay tuned for further intraday updates via our Energy Market coverage.
