Mexico’s grain sector is poised for a mixed performance in the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY), according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s “Grain and Feed Annual” report released on March 21, 2025. Despite a downward economic growth forecast of 0.6% by Mexico’s central bank, rising population and livestock production are driving grain demand. The report highlights increased production for corn, rice, and sorghum, spurred by higher local prices, while wheat faces a steep decline due to drought-induced water shortages in key regions like Sonora and Sinaloa. This article delves into the key findings, supported by detailed data tables.
Corn: Production Up, Imports Down
Corn production in MY 2025/26 (October 2025 – September 2026) is forecast to rise 3% to 24.5 million metric tons (MMT), buoyed by a 2% increase in harvested area to 6.4 million hectares (ha). Higher white corn prices—up 13% in February 2025 to 6,100 pesos (USD 300) per ton in the Bajío region—are encouraging farmers to expand planting, despite challenges like debt, limited financing, and rising insecurity. Imports are projected to drop 3% to 24.8 MMT, reflecting higher domestic output and carryover from record 25.5 MMT imports in MY 2024/25. Consumption is expected to climb 1% to 49.8 MMT, driven by livestock feed demand, particularly poultry, with ending stocks falling 11% to 4.1 MMT.
Mexico Corn Supply and Distribution (MY 2023/24 – 2025/26)
| Category | 2023/24 (MMT) | 2024/25 (MMT) | 2025/26 (MMT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 23.5 | 23.7 | 24.5 |
| Imports | 24.759 | 25.5 | 24.8 |
| Total Supply | 52.853 | 53.93 | 53.91 |
| Consumption | 48.1 | 49.3 | 49.8 |
| Ending Stocks | 4.73 | 4.61 | 4.09 |
| Source: USDA FAS Grain and Feed Annual, MX2025-0013 |
Wheat: Drought Slashes Output
Wheat production is set to plummet 39% to 1.6 MMT in MY 2025/26 (July 2025 – June 2026), with harvested area shrinking 38% to 290,000 ha. Severe drought in Sonora, which produces 52% of Mexico’s wheat, has reduced dam levels to 15% capacity, limiting irrigation and slashing durum wheat area by 88%. Imports are forecast to rise 8% to 6.5 MMT to offset the shortfall, while exports drop 50% to 50,000 MT due to scarce durum supplies. Consumption will edge up 1% to 8.1 MMT, fueled by population-driven bread demand, with stocks decreasing 4% to 1.3 MMT.
Mexico Grain Production and Imports Forecast (MY 2025/2026 vs. MY 2024/2025)
| Grain | Production (MMT) 2024/25 | Production (MMT) 2025/26 | % Change | Imports (MMT) 2024/25 | Imports (MMT) 2025/26 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 23.7 | 24.5 | +3% | 25.5 | 24.8 | -3% |
| Wheat | 2.64 | 1.6 | -39% | 6.0 | 6.5 | +8% |
| Rice (milled) | 0.163 | 0.170 | +4% | 0.870 | 0.880 | +1% |
| Sorghum | 3.75 | 3.9 | +3% | 0.040 | 0.030 | -25% |
Rice and Sorghum: Modest Gains
Rice production is projected to increase 4% to 170,000 MT (milled), with a 3% rise in harvested area to 35,000 ha, supported by government initiatives like the Plan Campeche. Imports will grow 1% to 880,000 MT, reflecting population growth, while exports rise 17% to 35,000 MT. Sorghum production is expected to climb 3% to 3.9 MMT, with a 3% increase in harvested area to 1.1 million ha, driven by higher prices in Tamaulipas. Imports will fall 25% to 30,000 MT, as domestic supply meets feed demand, which rises 1% to 3.9 MMT.
Policy and Challenges
The report notes Mexico’s constitutional amendment banning genetically modified (GM) corn cultivation, effective March 17, 2025, though its impact on imports remains unclear post-USMCA dispute resolution. Government programs like Price Guarantees and Fertilizers for Wellbeing aim to bolster small farmers but have limited effect on production growth due to their social welfare focus. Water scarcity, insecurity, and a budget prioritizing social assistance over agricultural investment further constrain output.
Outlook
Mexico’s grain sector in MY 2025/26 reflects a balancing act between domestic production gains and import reliance. Corn’s uptick offers some relief, but wheat’s decline underscores vulnerability to climate challenges. As demand grows, Mexico will remain a key grain importer, with the U.S. as its primary supplier, navigating policy shifts and environmental pressures. For full details, see Report MX2025-0013 on the FAS website.
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