Crude Firms as Inflation Flares, Grains Slide to End Week
Commodity futures ended the week mixed on Friday, with crude contracts firming and grains broadly weaker. Inflation signals spooked traders after University of Michigan data showed long-term expectations rising to multi-decade highs. Fed officials acknowledged economic strain but stopped short of pivoting policy in the near term.
📉 Grains
- Corn (Jul ’25): 443-4 ▼ -5.0
- Wheat (Jul ’25): 525-0 ▼ -7-6
- Soybeans (Jul ’25): 1050-0 ▼ -1-2
Grains were under pressure to close the week, led by weakness in wheat as global production concerns eased. Corn and soybeans drifted lower amid light export flows and positioning ahead of Monday’s Crop Progress update.
🛢️ Energy
- Crude Oil WTI (Jul ’25): 61.93 ▲ +0.82 (+1.34%)
- Natural Gas (Jul ’25): 3.692 ▼ -0.025
- RBOB Gasoline (Jun ’25): +0.0074 (+0.25%)
Crude oil rallied late in the day, supported by signs of steady demand and a weaker dollar. Gasoline also posted modest gains, while natural gas slipped on mild weather outlooks and sufficient supply.
🐂 Livestock
Live cattle and lean hog futures were mostly flat Friday with little fresh news to drive movement. Traders await updated cold storage data next week for cues on retail demand and slaughter trends.
🍫 Softs
- Sugar #11 (Jul ’25): 17.52 ▼ -0.15
- Coffee (Jul ’25): 365.65 ▼ -9.35
- Cocoa (Jul ’25): 10,898 ▲ +641
Cocoa surged on tightening West African supplies, while coffee and sugar softened on speculative selling and stronger supply forecasts.
📊 Macroeconomic Highlights
- 📉 April housing starts: +1.6% to 1.361M (below 1.364M forecast)
- 📉 April building permits: -4.7% to 1.412M (below 1.450M forecast)
- 🔥 April import prices ex-petroleum: +0.4% (strongest in 1 year)
- 📉 U. Michigan May consumer sentiment: 50.8 (3-year low)
- 🔥 1-year inflation expectations: 7.3% (43-year high)
- 🔥 5–10 year inflation expectations: 4.6% (34-year high)
- 💬 Fed’s Bostic: Sees one rate cut this year, no recession forecast
