Corn for Ethanol Usage
The USDA‘s latest monthly Grain Crushings report shows that 464.9 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in November, surpassing last year’s figure of 457.2 million bushels. October’s usage was revised upward to 466.7 million bushels from the initial 460.5 million bushels reported.
This trend of upward revisions in previous months’ data has become a regular occurrence in USDA reports. Analysts anticipate further revisions that could increase November’s usage to around 470-471 million bushels. This adjustment would push the total U.S. corn for ethanol usage from September to November 2024/25 to 1.383 billion bushels, marking a 2.6% increase from the previous year and setting a pace towards the annual estimate of 5.500 billion bushels.
Moreover, October utilized 3.5 million bushels of sorghum for ethanol, the highest in 14 months, indicating a total of 8.7 million bushels for September to November. The report also records 1.836 million tons of dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) produced in November, slightly boosting the quarterly total above last year’s numbers.
Soybean Crush and Oil Stocks
USDA data reveals that November’s U.S. soybean crush hit 210.0 million bushels, surpassing expectations and establishing a new record for the month with a 5.0% increase from last year. The first quarter of the 2024/25 marketing year saw a crush total of 612.3 million bushels, up 6.3% from the year before.
This pace raises concerns that the USDA’s annual estimate of 2.410 billion bushels could be at risk, particularly with evolving crush margins and biofuel policy shifts under a new administration. November’s soybean oil production reported at 2.490 billion pounds, with the yield slightly down from October but still setting a new November record. This development backs the USDA’s recent upward revision of the annual soybean oil yield.
November’s soybean oil stocks stood at a significantly higher 1.613 billion pounds than anticipated, due to an upward adjustment of October’s figures, signaling a departure from the recent trend of low oil inventories. Domestic usage of soybean oil in November experienced a slight uptick from the previous year.
Soybean Meal Production
November produced 4.975 million tons of soybean meal, with the yield per bushel slightly higher than both October and November of the previous year. Domestic usage of soybean meal decreased by 2.4% from the previous year, following a rise in October, potentially affecting annual usage forecasts if this trend continues.
Overall, these updates from the USDA reflect a strong start to the new marketing year for corn and soybean products, showcasing adjustments in usage and production amid industry changes. However, the reliability of these initial figures requires cautious interpretation due to the history of subsequent revisions.
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