China’s poultry industry is experiencing a dynamic transformation as domestic production continues to rise while imports decline significantly. The market has become increasingly self-sufficient, with domestic producers scaling operations to meet growing consumer demand. Meanwhile, exports are gaining momentum as China strengthens its presence in the global poultry trade. The industry is navigating key challenges, including market saturation, declining profit margins, shifting consumer preferences, and stringent trade policies that impact imports. This report explores the latest trends, market dynamics, and future outlook for China’s poultry industry from 2023 to 2025.
Production Trends: Steady Growth with a Slower Pace
China’s poultry production continues to expand but at a slower pace due to market saturation and economic factors. In 2023, poultry production reached 14.8 million metric tons (MT), growing to 15.3 million MT in 2024. The forecast for 2025 indicates a moderate increase to 15.5 million MT, reflecting a 1.3% year-on-year growth.
The expansion of white broiler production has slowed, as large-scale producers dominate the market while smaller farms struggle to remain competitive. Additionally, yellow broiler production has seen a steady decline, accounting for only 25% of total poultry production, compared to nearly 50% a decade ago. This shift is largely due to the closure of live poultry markets and changing consumer preferences, which favor more affordable white broiler products. Government subsidies for domestic breeding programs have supported production growth, but structural inefficiencies could limit further expansion.
Consumer Demand: Changing Preferences Drive Market Shifts
Poultry consumption in China remains stable, with 15.1 million MT expected to be consumed in 2025, a slight decrease from 15.115 million MT in 2024. While poultry remains a crucial part of the Chinese diet, consumption growth is plateauing as pork prices stabilize, reducing the substitution effect that previously boosted chicken demand.
Processed chicken products, such as ready-to-eat meals and fast-food options, are gaining popularity. Health-conscious consumers are driving demand for leaner cuts, particularly chicken breast, which has seen increasing sales in urban markets. While traditional poultry consumption patterns are shifting, the overall market remains robust, supported by evolving consumer behaviors.
Trade Analysis: Imports Decline While Exports Gain Momentum
China’s poultry imports have fallen sharply, declining from 756,000 MT in 2023 to 477,000 MT in 2024, with a projected drop to 380,000 MT in 2025. This downward trend is attributed to rising domestic production, restrictive trade policies, and shifting global market dynamics. The Chinese government continues to impose strict Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) restrictions, significantly impacting poultry imports from the United States.
Brazil remains China’s leading poultry supplier, increasing its market share from 65% in 2023 to 70% in 2024. The United States, once a major player, saw its market share drop to 11% in 2024, while Thailand strengthened its position, now matching U.S. import levels. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan has further discouraged imports, making foreign poultry more expensive relative to domestic supply.
On the export front, China is becoming a growing poultry exporter, with shipments increasing to 780,000 MT in 2025, compared to 770,000 MT in 2024. Japan and Hong Kong remain the top destinations, each accounting for 24% of total exports, while Russia and other markets continue to expand. As domestic production outpaces demand, China is actively seeking new export opportunities to maintain market balance.
Pricing Trends: Cost Adjustments Reshape Market Dynamics
Chicken prices have fluctuated as supply outpaces demand. In 2024, imported poultry prices from major suppliers increased due to inflation and currency devaluation. The United States remains the most expensive poultry supplier, with import prices reaching $5,200 per MT in 2024, up from $4,800 per MT in 2023. Meanwhile, Brazil and Russia offer more competitive pricing, with Brazilian poultry averaging $4,600 per MT and Russian imports at $4,100 per MT.
Domestic producers are benefiting from lower feed costs, improving profit margins for large-scale operations, while small-scale farmers continue to struggle with inefficiencies and rising overhead costs.
Policy and Trade Barriers: Challenges for U.S. Poultry Exports
Several trade restrictions and retaliatory tariffs continue to shape China’s poultry import policies. The ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute has led to tariffs ranging from 7.5% to 50% on U.S. poultry products, further reducing competitiveness in the Chinese market. Additionally, China enforces strict HPAI-related bans on poultry imports from multiple U.S. states, disrupting supply chains and limiting trade opportunities.
On the domestic front, the Chinese government is actively promoting self-sufficiency in poultry production by offering subsidies and incentives to farms using locally bred genetic stock. Provinces such as Shandong and Liaoning are leading these efforts, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign poultry genetics and improve long-term industry stability.
Conclusion: Future Outlook for China’s Poultry Industry
The Chinese poultry industry is expected to stabilize in the coming years, with moderate production growth, declining imports, and expanding exports. As China shifts toward self-sufficiency and export-driven growth, market players must adapt to evolving regulations, shifting trade policies, and changing consumer preferences.
Looking ahead, China’s poultry sector will likely experience:
- Continued consolidation among large-scale poultry producers.
- Increased demand for processed and value-added poultry products.
- Potential trade negotiations to address tariffs and disease-related restrictions.
- More investment in domestic poultry breeding programs to improve efficiency.
While uncertainties in global trade and policy regulations remain, China is positioning itself as a leading poultry exporter while balancing domestic market demands.
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