Brazil continues to solidify its position as a global agricultural powerhouse, with the oilseeds sector poised for notable expansion in the 2025/26 marketing year (MY), according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) “Oilseeds and Products Annual” report released on March 21, 2025. The report, prepared by the FAS Post in Brasilia, forecasts significant increases in soybean, peanut, cottonseed, and palm oil production, driven by expanded planted areas, rising global demand, and favorable economic conditions. Below is an overview of the key findings, with a focus on soybeans—the cornerstone of Brazil’s oilseed dominance—and a snapshot of production forecasts across these commodities.
Soybeans: A Record-Breaking Forecast
Soybeans remain Brazil’s flagship oilseed, accounting for nearly 90% of the country’s total oilseed production. The report projects that soybean planted area will reach 48.2 million hectares (ha) in MY 2025/26, up from 47.3 million ha in 2024/25, a modest 2% increase. Production expected to climb to 173 million metric tons (mmt), a 2% rise from the estimated 169.5 mmt for the current season. This growth, while slower than the five-year average of 6%, reflects high production costs and flattening prices that have tempered the pace of expansion.
Exports are a highlight, with MY 2025/26 soybean exports forecast at a record 112 mmt, up from 108.3 mmt in 2024/25. This surge fueled by robust demand from China—Brazil’s top market, importing 72.5 mmt in 2024—and a favorable exchange rate of approximately R$6.00 to USD1.00 projected for 2025 and 2026. Domestically, soybean crushing expected to rise to 57 mmt, driven by demand for soy oil in biodiesel production and soymeal for animal feed. Though tempered growth by a biodiesel blend rate holding steady at 14% rather than advancing to 15% as planned.
Other Oilseeds: Peanuts, Cottonseed, and Palm Oil on the Rise
The report also details growth in other oilseeds. Peanut planted area forecast to reach 280,000 ha in MY 2025/26, with production hitting 1.07 mmt, bolstered by demand for peanut oil and investments in processing in Mato Grosso do Sul. Cottonseed production projected at 6.2 mmt, supported by a planted area of 2.13 million ha, as lower input costs and domestic demand for byproducts like cottonseed meal drive expansion. Palm oil production expected to reach 650,000 mt from 230,000 ha, concentrated in Pará, though Brazil remains a net importer due to limited export focus.
Economic and Environmental Factors
A weakening Brazilian real enhances export competitiveness; while high interest rates (13.25%) and production costs pose challenges to financing and yield improvements. Environmentally, Brazil is leveraging degraded pastureland for expansion. Potentially up to 40 million ha over the next decade—aligning with sustainability goals like the EU’s deforestation-free product mandates. Which are not expected to hinder exports following the EU-Mercosur trade agreement finalized in December 2024.
Projected production for Brazil’s key oilseeds in MY 2025/26 Vs. MY 2024/25 estimates:
| Oilseed | MY 2024/25 Production (mmt) | MY 2025/26 Production (mmt) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | 169.5 | 173.0 | +2.1% |
| Peanuts | 1.0 | 1.07 | +7.0% |
| Cottonseed | 5.9 | 6.2 | +5.1% |
| Palm Oil | 0.6 | 0.65 | +8.3% |
Source: USDA FAS “Oilseeds and Products Annual” Report, March 21, 2025
Outlook
Brazil’s oilseeds sector is on track for a strong 2025/26, with soybeans leading the charge. While challenges like transportation bottlenecks and financing constraints persist. Strategic land use, technological adoption, and global market dynamics position Brazil to maintain its edge. The report underscores Brazil’s critical producer role, with soybeans alone projected to meet over 40% of global demand. Cementing its status as an agricultural titan.
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