Overview

• Energy: WTI oscillated in a tight $62–$67 band and finished near the mid-$60s as seasonal demand slowed and supply stayed ample. Gasoline (RBOB) popped late month into Labor Day. Natural gas pressed the high-$2s before stabilizing.
• Grains: A bearish USDA corn/wheat setup sparked early-month lows; corn recovered on value buying and export competitiveness. Soybeans outperformed on a tighter U.S. balance sheet.
• Livestock: Live cattle printed record territory on tight fed supplies; lean hogs rallied back toward the mid-$90s with notable speculative length.
• Positioning highlights (8/26): Corn Managed Money net short ≈ 110,686. Lean hogs Managed Money net long ≈ 114,042; Producers/Merchandisers net short ≈ −171,360.

Market at a Glance: Aug 1 vs. Sep 1

Energy

Crude Oil (WTI)

WTI spent August inside a compressed $62–$67 range as U.S. refinery runs eased into the end of the driving season and inventory signals flipped between mid-month builds and late-month draws. The forward curve’s prompt premium narrowed, reflecting a more comfortable nearby balance. On the supply side, U.S. production held near record levels, while OPEC+ supply expectations kept rallies capped. Traders faded strength and bought dips, keeping realized volatility modest and price anchored near the mid-$60s by month-end.

What mattered in August: Seasonal demand fade ahead of Labor Day. Headline risk from maintenance/outages that briefly supported products without changing crude’s bigger picture. positioning that leaned cautious rather than aggressively bullish. Into September, watch for post-holiday demand normalization, fall maintenance, and any shift in policy/supply guidance that could steepen the curve again.

Gasoline (RBOB)

Gasoline diverged from crude late month. A combination of pre-holiday buying, scattered outage chatter, and firm retail pull boosted cracks, pushing RBOB to a late-August breakout even as crude lagged. The move tightened near-term product balances but did not resolve the broader seasonal downshift risk once Labor Day passed.

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Natural gas weakness remained a feature of the summer. Lower-48 dry production and steady LNG utilization kept the market well supplied, with storage injections consistently above seasonal norms. Prices slid into the high-$2s mid-month before stabilizing as shorts lightened up and weather risk into September returned to the conversation.

Watch next: Gulf weather through peak hurricane season, early winter forecasts, and any moderation in production growth. With inventories comfortable, rallies likely need weather or exports to surprise.

Agriculture

Corn

The August USDA reports set a bearish tone early: larger harvested area and record-leaning yield assumptions swelled 2025/26 ending stocks and pushed the curve deeper into carry. That drove new contract lows to start the month. From there, the story turned tactical—export competitiveness improved sharply sub-$4, ethanol margins stayed serviceable, and end-users stepped in. Managed Money remained significantly short, but late-month price action reflected value buying and short-covering into the holiday.

Takeaway: Fundamentally heavy but technically responsive at value levels. The market into September is sensitive to harvest pace/quality and export sales cadence; sub-$4 continues to attract demand while rallies are likely tested by large carryout optics.

Soybeans

Soybeans outperformed the grain complex. Acreage reductions and only modest yield gains tightened the U.S. balance sheet, leaving less room for error into harvest. Meal shorts unwound and the crush complex re-balanced, even as bean oil lagged on biofuel policy uncertainty. Pricing held a constructive tone above $10 with dips bought on supply risk and South American planting uncertainty approaching.

Positioning & risk: Funds covered shorts back toward neutral/long. The key swing factors are U.S. harvest results, export demand timing, and early South America weather. A tight U.S. carryout argues for maintaining some risk premium.

Wheat (Chicago SRW)

Wheat remained the laggard as global exporter competition stayed fierce and U.S. carryout remained comfortable. Attempts to bounce were faded as funds pressed shorts and the market respected resistance layers. Price action late month hinted at basing above $5.00, but conviction requires either a meaningful export surprise or a credible production issue in a major origin.

Livestock

Live Cattle

The cattle complex stayed structurally tight. Years of herd liquidation left fed-cattle supplies thin, while beef demand remained resilient despite elevated retail pricing. Futures pressed to record territory through late August with shallow pullbacks quickly bought. Wholesale cutout values and packer margins remained historically strong, reinforcing the uptrend.

What to watch: Any hint of herd rebuilding (heifer retention), slaughter pace, and consumer substitution into pork/poultry. For now, the path of least resistance stayed higher into early September.

Lean Hogs

Hogs clawed back toward the mid-$90s by month-end. Product values improved seasonally and speculative participation was substantial. The COT showed sizeable Managed Money length versus deep commercial hedging on the other side, a setup that can amplify swings either direction.

Key edges into September: Export sales cadence, belly demand after the grilling peak, and any shifts in slaughter weights. Strong speculative length argues for risk management on both sides.

Selective Cross-Sector Catalysts

• Softs: Coffee and sugar were supported by origin-specific weather/policy headlines; limited direct spillover to U.S. inflation or feed costs in August.
• Metals: Precious and base metals were mixed and range-bound overall; they did not materially drive U.S. commodity beta in August.
• Macro: Rates/dollar were relatively contained; energy and grains traded more on sector fundamentals than on macro shocks.

Late-August Price Snapshot

Grain decimals reflect CBOT ticks (e.g., 398’2 = $3.9825/bu). Charts show late-August prints.

This material is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any futures, options, or OTC products. Trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors.