USDA 2026 Projections: China’s Beef Slips, Japan’s Pork Resilient, Canada’s Chicken Rises
The latest USDA 2026 Livestock and Poultry Projections highlight diverging trends across major markets. China’s beef supply contracts while pork steadies, Japan’s beef sector struggles but pork remains resilient, and Canada’s chicken production edges higher on firm retail and foodservice demand. These insights come from USDA GAIN annuals covering China, Japan, and Canada.
At a Glance (2026 Forecasts)
| Country | Key Proteins | Production Trend (’26) | Import Trend (’26) | Demand Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Beef, Pork | Beef down on smaller herd; pork steady. | Beef imports slightly up; pork imports down. | Household demand soft; tariffs and policy limit U.S. access. |
| Japan | Beef, Pork | Beef down (herd/shock to slaughter); pork steady. | Beef imports minimally higher; pork imports rebound. | Consumers trade down; fast-food gains; yen weakness lifts CIFs. |
| Canada | Chicken | Up ~1% to ~1.50 MMT. | Imports ~220k MT (+); U.S. keeps >80% share. | Per-capita use edges higher; quick-service demand firm. |
China: Beef Tightens, Pork Levels Hold
After herd liquidation in 2024, China’s 2026 beef output is forecast lower at about 7.56 MMT, reflecting fewer slaughter-ready cattle. Pork remains broadly stable as sow numbers and piglet output balance weaker margins. Beef imports are set to rise slightly, focused on frozen cuts from South America, while pork imports decline amid high domestic supplies and storage stocks. Household beef demand remains soft, and U.S. access is still curtailed by tariffs and plant registration issues.
Japan: Beef Slows, Pork Demand Holds Up
Japan’s cattle herd keeps shrinking due to aging farmers and reduced calf output. As a result, 2026 beef production is projected at ~485,000 MT, down from 500,000 MT in 2025. Consumer demand is weak as beef prices outpace incomes. Fast-food and beef bowl chains benefit from trade-down behavior, while yakiniku and higher-end restaurants struggle.
By contrast, pork remains resilient. Production holds steady around 1.27 MMT, while imports, after dipping late in 2025, are forecast to rebound to ~1.48 MMT in 2026. The U.S. remains Japan’s top pork supplier with nearly one-third market share, although chilled beef imports lag due to yen weakness and elevated costs.
Canada: Chicken Inching Higher, U.S. Dominates Imports
Canada’s chicken production is forecast at 1.50 MMT in 2026, up about one percent year-over-year. Consumption climbs to a record 38.3 kg per person, exceeding pre-pandemic levels, driven by affordability and quick-service menu growth. Imports are projected at 220,000 MT, with the U.S. retaining more than 80 percent share. Chile is emerging under CPTPP quotas, while Brazil and Thailand continue modest growth.
Market Implications
- China: Beef remains tight; pork balanced but U.S. market access restricted.
- Japan: Beef weighed down by shrinking herd and weak demand; pork resilient on affordability and QSR pull.
- Canada: Chicken climbs modestly; U.S. keeps dominance in imports despite new CPTPP suppliers.
Learn more about our outlook at Paradigm Futures, or explore full data from USDA FAS.
The Weekly Hedging Playbook for Producers and Risk Managers
Paradigm’s premium commodity newsletter delivers a battle-tested outlook every Saturday for grains, livestock, and energy markets—built by Series 3 brokers who understand the risks producers face. Stay ahead of the week, not behind it.
Start My Free 14-Day Trial
No card required. Cancel anytime.
