Weekly Market Commentary: Wheat Signals a Bottom, Corn Fundamentals Tighten
May 20, 2025, By Jamie Gieseke
Wheat Markets: A Technical Turning Point?
Over the past few weeks in our Ag Hedging Report, we’ve noted that wheat appeared to be approaching a bottom—but confirmation had remained elusive. That changed last Thursday.
While in Des Moines, I spoke with a farming financial specialist who asked about the wheat market. Coincidentally, that same day Chicago Wheat cleared a previous intraday corrective high at $5.28 (July), both overnight and during the day session. This move was the first real signal that wheat may be attempting to establish a bottom. A decisive break above the $5.48 daily high in July futures would further solidify that view.
Another key technical feature is the possible formation of an ending diagonal in wheat—an often terminal pattern that typically results in a sharp reversal. If confirmed, this structure would suggest a swift recovery back toward the origin zone near $6.30 (July contract). Given current Managed Money positioning, this price level appears well within reach.
Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders, Paradigm Futures
Corn Markets: Waiting for a Lift
Corn has been looking to wheat for support, and we may have just gotten it. If wheat follows through with a confirmed breakout, it could finally provide the upward momentum corn needs to exit its multi-year bottoming formation.
The story in corn remains fundamentally constructive. Despite record production estimates—including 131 MMT projected for Brazil—global ending stocks continue to decline. The USDA now forecasts 2025/26 ending stocks at 277.84 MMT, down from 287.29 MMT in 2024 and 316.07 MMT in 2023. These are the tightest global supplies since the early Trump administration, during the height of U.S.-China trade tensions.
Stripping out China’s domestic reserves, the U.S. accounts for 47.8% of the world’s exportable corn ending stocks in 2025. Unless China begins exporting corn—an unlikely scenario—the global market remains heavily dependent on another record U.S. crop.
With tightening fundamentals and now potential technical tailwinds from wheat, corn may finally be set up for a meaningful move higher. The long-awaited shift toward more favorable pricing for producers could soon materialize.
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