Market Update – August 13th

By Matthew Mayou, Series 3 Licensed Broker

November 2025 Soybeans

November 2025 soybeans finally filled the gap from $10.394 to $10.442 today. A close above the top side of the gap would be a positive technical sign, with the next upside target at $10.58 followed by $10.74. Given last week’s low of $9.81 and a 60-cent rally in the near term, taking some risk off the table today may be wise.

The rally has been driven by yesterday’s USDA WASDE report, which reduced soybean acreage by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million. This lowered new-crop carryout to 290 million bushels while assuming a record yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. If yield were lowered by just one bushel, ending stocks would fall by 80 million bushels to 210 million.

A U.S.–China trade deal would further support this market, strengthening basis as rail bids firm to move new-crop beans to the Gulf. Interestingly, FSA data released after the report pegged acreage even lower, at 79.8 million. For producers with no new-crop beans sold, this rally offers an opportunity, with the next sales target at $10.74 November futures.

December 2025 Corn

Few expected the August USDA report to bring a record acreage increase for corn, but new-crop acreage rose to 97.25 million from the prior 95 million. Yield was pegged at a staggering 188.8 bushels per acre—well above last year’s record 179.3—pushing new-crop carryout to 2.11 billion bushels.

The market broke the $3.966 low yesterday and now needs to hold yesterday’s low of $3.92. For reference, last year’s low on December corn was $3.85. With such a high yield projection, USDA has left little margin for production errors in either corn or soybeans.

I remain in “hold” mode for now, watching whether CZ25 violates the $3.85 level. If it does, this could be a reownership opportunity for fall bushels that need to move. FSA data yesterday showed corn acreage at 96.5 million—also lower than the USDA figure.