NOPA Crush Surges 11.6% Year-over-Year as Soybean Market Recovers Early Losses
October 15, 2025 — Paradigm Futures
The latest National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report showed a powerful recovery in soybean crush volumes, with U.S. processors crushing 197.86 million bushels during September. That exceeded trade expectations of 186.34 million and marked an 11.6% increase over last year’s record for the same month. It was also up 4.2% from August, reflecting strong processor margins and steady demand for soybean meal and oil.
Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks slipped slightly month-to-month, down 0.17% to 1.24 billion pounds, but still stood 16.6% above last year’s levels. The modest drawdown suggests processors kept throughput high while downstream oil demand remains stable.
Market Reaction
After an initial dip early Wednesday, soybean futures firmed in response to the stronger-than-expected crush figures. By midday, contracts were trading 3 to 4 cents higher, led by deferred months. The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price improved 3 cents to $9.35 ¾.
Soymeal futures gained $1.80 to $1.90 per ton, while soybean oil added 30–31 points in the nearby contracts. The strong crush number—combined with resilient meal and oil demand—helped lift sentiment across the soybean complex.
However, the tone remains cautious following fresh political rhetoric. After Tuesday’s close, President Trump posted that he is “considering terminating business with China having to do with cooking oil and other elements of trade, as retribution” for reduced Chinese soybean purchases. Traders interpreted the statement as a possible headwind for long-term export prospects, though the domestic demand signal from NOPA remains the immediate market driver.
Outlook
Today’s data reinforces the underlying strength of U.S. crush margins and the role of the domestic processing industry in offsetting uncertain export flows. Despite the volatility surrounding trade headlines, soybean processors appear positioned for another strong quarter, with September’s performance suggesting cumulative 2025 crush totals will challenge or exceed last year’s record pace.
