November 2025 WASDE: Key Takeaways for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

The November 2025 WASDE brings us the first real update after weeks of a data blackout for grain markets. However, the USDA notes that several domestic data series were disrupted by the October 1–November 12 government shutdown, which delayed or limited normal data collection. As a result, some estimates rely on partial information and may be subject to revision. Even so, the report provides a meaningful snapshot of current supply-and-demand conditions as we head toward winter.

Corn

U.S. beginning stocks were raised significantly—up roughly +207 million bushels—following revisions from the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Meanwhile, the national yield estimate was trimmed from 186.7 bpa to 186.0 bpa, lowering projected production by about 62 million bushels.

Even with lower production, total supply still increases due to the larger carry-in. U.S. ending stocks now rise +44 million bushels to 2.154 billion. Exports were increased by 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion, reflecting very strong early-season shipments.

Figure 1: U.S. Corn Yield – November WASDE

Globally, coarse grain production increases to 1.576 billion metric tons, driven by stronger output in multiple countries. Foreign corn ending stocks decline mainly because of a notable reduction in China, placing world corn ending stocks at 281.3 MMT, slightly below last month.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean production was reduced by 48 million bushels after yield dropped from 53.5 bpa to 53.0 bpa. Combined with a reduction in beginning stocks, total U.S. soybean supply declines by roughly 61 million bushels.

USDA lowered export expectations by 50 million bushels, citing increased South American competition and shifting trade dynamics with China. Crush remains steady at 2.555 billion bushels, bringing U.S. ending stocks to about 290 million bushels.

Figure 2: U.S. Soybean Yield – November WASDE

Globally, soybean production is lowered by 4.1 MMT, driven by cuts in the U.S., Ukraine, and India. Brazil’s previous crop is revised higher to 171.5 MMT, lifting crush, exports, and ending stocks there. World soybean ending stocks fall to 122 MMT, down 2.0 MMT from last month.

Wheat

U.S. all-wheat yield reaches a record 53.3 bpa, raising production to 1.985 billion bushels, up 58 million from last month. With use largely unchanged, ending stocks rise sharply to 901 million bushels. USDA cuts the season-average farm price to $5.00/bu.

Globally, wheat production increases across nearly all major exporters including the EU, Russia, Australia, Canada, Argentina, and Kazakhstan. World ending stocks climb 7.4 MMT to 271.4 MMT—the first year-over-year increase in global wheat stocks since 2019/20.

Summary & Market Implications

Across the major grains, the November WASDE paints a picture of adequate supply with modest tightening in soybeans and increased stock cushions in corn and wheat. However, because the USDA relied on incomplete datasets during the shutdown period, revision risk in upcoming reports remains higher than normal.

• Corn: Higher carry-in offsets lower yield; stocks rise.
• Soybeans: Lower production and beginning stocks tighten supply, but exports remain a limiting factor.
• Wheat: Record U.S. yields and larger global surpluses pressure the balance sheet.

As markets transition toward winter, focus shifts to export pace, South American weather, and January revisions—all of which carry heightened significance following the October data disruptions.