November 2025 Market Recap: Grains, Energy, Livestock & the Federal Reserve

November brought a decisive shift in market tone across commodities. Grains steadied as export demand improved and South American planting progressed unevenly. Energy markets continued to wrestle with a growing global supply cushion, while livestock attempted to recover from a deep correction. Meanwhile, financial markets spent much of the month positioning for what many expect to be the first Federal Reserve rate cut in over a year. Below is a sector-by-sector breakdown of the key developments shaping the end of 2025.

Corn

Corn futures held a firm undertone in November as demand quietly strengthened. Export performance continues to impress early in the marketing year, with the week ending October 16 showing 3.15 MMT in sales—well above both trade expectations and the five-year average. This stronger export profile has helped counterbalance the weight of a large U.S. crop and has encouraged end-users to step in on dips.

Figure 1: USDA Weekly Corn Export Sales – Week Ending 10/16/25

Domestic demand remains steady: ethanol grind is seasonally firm, and livestock feeders continue to take advantage of favorable basis levels in surplus regions. While the U.S. balance sheet is still heavy, the combination of solid exports and resilient domestic use has allowed the market to stabilize above early-autumn lows.

Soybeans

Soybeans ended November on a firmer note, with the January 2026 contract closing November 28 at 1137–6, up approximately 1.4% on the week. The rally reflected improved demand, better technical momentum, and renewed attention on South American planting conditions.

The November WASDE provided additional fuel. USDA trimmed national soybean yield from 53.5 bpa to 53.0 bpa, reducing U.S. production by 48 million bushels. Combined with lower beginning stocks, total U.S. soybean supply fell by roughly 61 million bushels. Meanwhile, USDA cut export expectations by 50 million bushels due to stronger South American competition and more selective Chinese buying. Crush was unchanged at 2.555 billion bushels, placing ending stocks near 290 million bushels.

Figure 2: U.S. Soybean Yield – November WASDE

Argentina: Progress Improving but Still Lagging

Argentina’s soybean planting made a notable jump late in November, rising to 39% planted versus 25% the prior week. Even so, progress remains behind both last year’s 47% and the 42% five-year average. Early-season delays stemmed from excessive moisture in several provinces, but recent improvements have reduced concern for now. Markets will closely monitor December weather, as late planting shifts more of the crop’s reproductive phase into the heart of summer.

Energy Markets: Crude, Products & Canada’s Pipeline Push

Crude Oil & Refined Products

Crude futures spent November trading defensively. WTI January ’26 settled near the $58–59/bbl range into month-end, weighed down by rising U.S. inventories, record-high domestic production near 13.8 million bpd, and expectations for strong non-OPEC output growth in 2025–26. Refined products followed suit: ULSD and gasoline futures softened as demand trends flattened and storage levels remained adequate.

Figure 3: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (Excluding SPR)

On the geopolitical front, Canada’s newly announced Pacific export pipeline MOU—envisioning more than 1 million bpd of outbound capacity—adds a significant long-term wrinkle. If realized, the project would diversify Canada’s export base, reduce reliance on U.S. buyers, and potentially tighten heavy crude differentials. However, it remains in the conceptual stage amid political, environmental, and logistical hurdles.

Livestock: Rebounding from a Deep Break

Cattle markets stabilized into month-end following a sharp early-fall correction. Live cattle futures recovered several dollars, supported by firmer cash trade in the U.S. Plains and expectations for tighter December kill schedules. Packers paid modestly higher money late in the month as smaller show lists emerged and cutout values attempted to firm.

Brazilian cattle markets mirrored the stabilization trend. Physical prices were mixed, but B3 futures posted a strong weekly rebound as replacement markets (calves and feeders) strengthened in several key regions. The global livestock sector remains fragile but is showing signs that liquidation pressure may be easing.

The Federal Reserve: Market Bets on a December Cut

The macro narrative dominating November revolves around interest rates. The federal funds target range remains at 4.25–4.50%, but Fed funds futures and the CME FedWatch tool now imply a strong probability of a 25 bp rate cut at the December meeting. Several more cuts are priced into 2025 as inflation cools and labor-market indicators soften.

Figure 4: CME FedWatch – Market-Implied December Rate Probability

A dovish shift has broad implications: a weaker dollar improves U.S. export competitiveness; lower financing costs support inventory holding and hedging flexibility; but slower global growth may temper overall commodity demand. How these competing forces evolve will shape price action into early 2026.

Key Themes Heading into December

Corn: Strong early export sales anchor the market despite a heavy balance sheet.

Soybeans: WASDE cuts and South American weather risk support the market; Argentina improving but still behind.

Energy: WTI trades heavy as global supply rises; Canada injects long-term structural intrigue with new pipeline MOU.

Livestock: Stabilizing after a sharp break, but demand remains uneven.

The Fed: Markets increasingly confident in a December rate cut; dollar direction and risk appetite will set the tone for Q1.