March WASDE: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat

USDA Stays Conservative While Global Stocks Grind Higher

USDA’s March WASDE delivers no major surprises for the three primary row crops. The report repeats the same theme: comfortable old-crop balance sheets, only modest changes in world numbers, and no fresh reason for a big fundamental rally.

Corn: No Change in the U.S., Heavier Global Stocks

USDA leaves the 2025/26 U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged from last month. The agency holds the season-average farm price at $4.10 per bushel and keeps a clear wait-and-see stance until it sees acreage and early weather.

On the global side, the coarse grains section leans heavier. USDA raises 2025/26 world coarse grain production by 2.7 million metric tons to 1.593 billion. Foreign corn output increases in Ukraine and Brazil and more than offsets a cut to Argentina tied to February dryness. Global corn ending stocks climb to 292.8 million metric tons, up 3.8 million on the month, with larger carryout in Brazil, Ukraine, and India and a decline in Argentina.

For the market, an unchanged U.S. sheet and larger global stocks keep rallies guilty until proven innocent. Until a production threat or a clear demand surprise shows up, this report argues for selling strength and managing risk instead of chasing a new bull story.

Soybeans: Slightly Tighter Global Story, Steady U.S. Carryout

USDA trims the soybean balance sheet but keeps the headline U.S. carry number intact. For 2025/26, U.S. soybean imports increase 5 million bushels and crush also rises 5 million bushels. Stronger domestic soybean meal demand drives that change. Even so, ending stocks hold at 350 million bushels, and the season-average farm price stays at $10.20 per bushel.

USDA also adjusts extraction rates. The soybean oil yield moves lower, so soybean oil production slips slightly versus last month even with the higher crush. On the demand side, USDA cuts soybean oil use for biofuel by 800 million pounds to 14.0 billion and lifts food, feed, and other industrial use. Soybean oil ending stocks edge higher. Soybean meal’s season-average price increases $5 to $300 per short ton, and soybean oil’s price rises 2 cents to 55 cents per pound.

The global oilseed picture tilts only mildly supportive. USDA raises 2025/26 total oilseed production by 1.8 million metric tons on larger sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and cottonseed crops. At the same time, it trims world soybean production on cuts to Argentina and Ukraine. Both countries lose 0.5 million tons, with Argentina lowered to 48.0 million on weaker yields and Ukraine cut to 5.5 million on reduced area. World soybean supply and use now show slightly lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks, with most of the carryout reduction in India and Ukraine.

Wheat: Quiet U.S. Sheet, Big Global Cushion

Wheat sees almost no movement at home. USDA leaves the 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use lines unchanged. The agency only nudges the projected season-average farm price 5 cents higher to $4.95 per bushel on recent NASS data and price expectations.

The world wheat story still points to plenty of supply. USDA lifts 2025/26 global wheat supplies by 0.2 million metric tons to 1,101.8 million. Higher output in Ukraine and Kazakhstan more than offsets a 1.0 million ton cut in Australia. Even after that cut, Australia’s crop sits at 36.0 million tons, the third-largest wheat crop on record. USDA also raises global consumption 0.7 million tons to a record 824.8 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use in the European Union.

World wheat trade increases 0.2 million tons to 222.2 million. Larger exports from Argentina and Kazakhstan offset reductions for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine. USDA now pegs Argentina’s exports at a record 19.5 million tons, and its wheat remains the cheapest offer among the major exporters. Global ending stocks slip 0.6 million tons to 277.0 million but still sit at a five-year high. Wheat remains a heavy market, and USDA still gives the bulls very little to work with.

Bottom Line

March WASDE adds very little fuel to the fire. Corn holds an unchanged U.S. sheet and heavier global stocks. Soybeans pick up a slightly tighter global story but keep a steady U.S. carryout. Wheat grinds through another month with big world stocks and only small tweaks to trade and production. This setup rewards discipline on rallies while the market waits for acreage data and early-season weather to give the next real catalyst.

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