The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released by the USDA on March 11, 2025, provides updated projections for global and U.S. agricultural commodity supplies for the 2024/25 marketing year. Today’s report highlights stability and flux: U.S. corn and soybean supplies hold steady, wheat stocks swell, and global markets brace for tighter corn and soybean reserves amid rising demand.
Similar to how USDA handled the changes in U.S. Tarffis in 2018. Today USDA made a comment at the beginning of the WASDE report.
“Note: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place
U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2 for all products covered under USMC, which include most agricultural products in the WASDE. Reciprocal tariffs are also scheduled to begin on April 2. However, until these are in effect, WASDE does not incorporate them into commodity forecasts. Despite U.S. tariffs being suspended, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain in place. These are accounted for in WASDE estimates and are assumed to continue. U.S. tariffs on China and China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. are assumed to remain in place.”
You can find the direct source of these comments at the top of the March 2025 WASDE report.
Corn: Steady U.S. Supply, Global Stocks Tighten
For the 2024/25 U.S. corn market, the WASDE report indicates a stable supply outlook. Ending stocks are projected at 1,558 million bushels, slightly up due to minor adjustments in trade and use figures. Total use is estimated at 12,335 million bushels, with domestic consumption steady and exports lowered to 2,400 million bushels, reflecting a slower pace of shipments. The stable U.S. supply, supported by reduced exports, suggests a balanced domestic market, which could help stabilize U.S. corn prices in the near term.
Globally, coarse grain production (mainly corn) forecast to increase by 3.2 million tons to 1,496 million metric tons, driven by higher output in India, Russia, and Ukraine, though offset by declines in South Africa and Mexico. Despite this production rise, global corn ending stocks are projected to fall by 1.4 million tons to 288.9 million tons, due to reduced trade and higher consumption. This tightening of global supplies, amid strong demand, could lead to upward pressure on corn prices in international markets, particularly if consumption continues to outstrip supply growth.
Soybeans: U.S. Supply Unchanged, Global Stocks Decline
The U.S. soybean supply for 2024/25 remains steady, with ending stocks projected at 435 million bushels. Total use remained unchanged at 2,571 million bushels, including 2,025 million bushels of exports and 2,571 million bushels of domestic crush. This stability indicates a balanced U.S. market, with no significant shifts to drive domestic price changes.
Globally, soybean production is nearly flat at 679.37 million metric tons, with increases in Ukraine, Mexico, and Australia offset by a decline in South Africa. However, ending stocks are down by 2.9 million tons to 121.4 million tons, driven by a 2.9-million-ton increase in crush demand to 352.8 million tons, particularly in China. This reduction in global stocks, despite stable production, suggests a tighter market. The heightened crush demand could push soybean prices higher as global supplies shrink relative to processing needs.
Soybean Meal: Stable Supply Both Domestically and Globally
In the U.S., soybean meal supply for 2024/25 projected at 54,075 thousand short tons, with exports at 15,975 thousand tons and domestic use at 42,435 thousand tons, leaving ending stocks at 500 thousand tons. This balance between production and use points to a stable domestic market, with little immediate pressure on prices.
Globally, soybean meal production raised to 387.43 million metric tons, with total use at 379.88 million tons and ending stocks at 21.96 million tons. The slight production increase is matched by higher use, driven by increased crush demand. This equilibrium suggests a stable global market for soybean meal, with no major supply shifts to influence prices. However, the lean inventory levels mean that any disruptions could quickly tighten supplies.
Wheat: U.S. Stocks Rise, Global Balance Shifts
The U.S. wheat supply for 2024/25 shows a significant increase, with ending stocks rising by 25 million bushels to 819 million bushels, up 18% from 2023/24’s 696 million. This rise fueled by a 10-million-bushel increase in imports to 140 million and a 15-million-bushel reduction in exports to 835 million, while domestic use holds steady at 1,154 million bushels. The buildup of U.S. stocks, alongside reduced export competitiveness, could exert downward pressure on domestic wheat prices, as reflected in the lowered season-average farm price of $5.50 per bushel (down $0.05).
Globally, wheat supplies are up by 5.4 million tons to 1,066.7 million tons, driven by higher production in Australia (34.1 million tons) and Argentina, plus increased beginning stocks in Turkey. Ending stocks rise by 2.5 million tons to 260.1 million tons, despite a slight drop in trade (exports down 0.9 million tons to 208.1 million). This increase in global supplies, particularly from key exporters, may lead to downward pressure on international wheat prices, especially as major importers like China cut purchases (imports reduced to 6.5 million tons). The ample global supply could help stabilize markets against potential disruptions.
Conclusion
The March 2025 WASDE report reveals little change in global grain ending stocks. U.S. corn and soybean markets remain stable but have been trending to tigher ending stocks. Globally, however, tighter corn and soybean supplies could support higher prices in international markets due to strong demand and declining stocks. We have seen this already in the Brazilian soybean basis at the ports. The soybean basis has rallied significantly since putting in lows in January. The cash markets might be exposing a situation that is tighter than what the USDA WASDE report is printing today. Soybean meal supply is steady both domestically and globally, suggesting minimal price pressure unless disruptions occur. Wheat, conversely, sees increasing supplies, with higher U.S. stocks and global production potentially weighing on prices in both markets.
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