🌾 June 2025 WASDE Report – U.S. & Global Crop Summary
The USDA’s June 2025 WASDE report delivered a mix of bullish and bearish revisions across the major commodities. With updated projections for acreage, yields, production, exports, and ending stocks, this month’s report offers critical insight into market direction. Below is a complete breakdown of the data for Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, and Cotton, followed by an analysis of key takeaways and implications for grain and fiber markets.
🌽 Corn
U.S. 2025/26: Corn production remains at a projected 15.82 billion bushels with planted area holding at 95.3 million acres and yields steady at 181.0 bushels per acre. The USDA kept exports unchanged at 2.675 billion bushels. 2024 Corn ending stocks were lower today due to an increase in exports by 50 million bushels, contributing to a 50 million bushel drop in ending stocks for the 2025 balance sheet, now projected at 1.75 billion bushels. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $4.20 per bushel.
Global: Brazil’s crop was trimmed to 122 MMT due to late-season dryness in key regions. Ukraine’s output also declined slightly. These adjustments contributed to a 1.6 MMT reduction in global ending stocks, now forecast at 310.8 MMT. While global supply remains ample, reduced South American production adds supportive undertones.
📈 Market Analysis: The corn outlook remains moderately bullish. Domestic use continues to climb and global tightening offers some upside potential. Markets may respond positively if weather turns adverse or export pace accelerates.
🫘 Soybeans
U.S. 2025/26: USDA left soybean production unchanged at 4.34 billion bushels, with a yield of 52.5 bu/acre across 83.5 million planted acres. Crush remains strong at 2.49 billion bushels, and exports are held steady at 1.815 billion bushels. Ending stocks unchanged at 295 million bushels, and the average farm price remains at $10.25 per bushel.
Global: Brazil’s 2024/25 crop is reduced to 153 MMT, down 1 MMT from last month. Global ending stocks are projected at 127.9 MMT, reflecting a 1.0 MMT cut. Despite smaller supplies, demand from China remains stable.
📈 Market Analysis: Soybeans hold a slightly bullish tone with flat U.S. balance sheets and a tightening global supply picture. Price action may firm if Brazilian yield expectations fall further or crush margins continue to rise.
🌾 Wheat
U.S. 2025/26: The all-wheat crop is raised 115 million bushels to 1.921 billion, supported by higher White and Soft Red Winter wheat output. Yield remains at 51.6 bu/acre. Exports increased by 25 million bushels to 825 million, reflecting strong HRW demand. Despite higher exports, total supplies also rose, limiting the drawdown in stocks. Ending stocks are now projected at 898 million bushels, down 25 million from May. USDA raised the season-average farm price by 10 cents to $5.40/bu.
Global: Global ending stocks increased 3.5 MMT to 253.6 MMT as higher Russian production (now estimated at 89 MMT) offset slight reductions in the EU. Increased supply continues to cap any bullish upside.
📉 Market Analysis: Wheat is bearish in tone. Despite improved exports, ample global supply—particularly from Russia—will likely pressure futures unless demand improves significantly.
👕 Cotton
U.S. 2025/26: USDA cut production by 0.5 million bales to 14.0 million, reflecting lower harvested area and yield. Exports are steady at 12.5 million bales. Ending stocks were reduced to 4.3 million bales, and the average farm price remains at 62.0¢/lb.
Global: Global cotton stocks increased to 84.1 million bales (+0.8M), driven by a buildup in India and weaker-than-expected Chinese import activity.
📉 Market Analysis: Cotton leans neutral to bearish. U.S. production is lower, but rising global inventories and uncertain Chinese demand limit upside enthusiasm.
📊 WASDE Summary Table – June 2025
| Crop | 2025/26 Production | Exports | Ending Stocks | Avg. Farm Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 15.82B bu | 2.675B bu | 1.75B bu | $4.20/bu |
| Soybeans | 4.34B bu | 1.815B bu | 295M bu | $10.25/bu |
| Wheat | 1.921B bu | 825M bu | 898M bu | $5.40/bu |
| Cotton | 14.0M bales | 12.5M bales | 4.3M bales | 62.0¢/lb |
Source: USDA WASDE Report – Released June 12, 2025
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