July 2025 WASDE: Key Shifts in Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Outlook
Published: July 11, 2025
The USDA’s July WASDE report introduced several notable adjustments to U.S. supply and demand forecasts, particularly in corn, soybeans, and wheat. Revisions stem from updated acreage figures, early export activity, and evolving biofuel policy. Below, we break down the key takeaways.
🌽 Corn: Acreage Cuts Tighten the Balance Sheet
U.S. corn production for 2025/26 was reduced by 115 million bushels this month, with planted acreage slipping to 95.2 million and harvested area down to 86.8 million. The yield estimate remains unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre.
Offsetting some of that production loss is stronger-than-expected demand from the 2024/25 marketing year, where exports were raised by 100 million bushels. Feed and residual use was trimmed 50 million in response to tighter supplies, but overall, ending stocks for 2025/26 fell by 90 million to 1.660 billion bushels. The average farm price holds steady at $4.20 per bushel.
🌱 Soybeans: Biofuel Demand Lifts Crush, But Export Pressure Remains
U.S. soybean production was lowered by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion due to slightly smaller harvested acreage. Despite steady yield projections at 52.5 bu/acre, the real story this month lies in demand.
The soybean crush forecast jumped by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion, driven by growing demand for soybean oil in renewable diesel. This increase reflects the EPA’s proposed 2026–2027 RFS volumes and the upcoming 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit, both of which favor domestic feedstocks.
However, soybean exports were slashed by 70 million bushels to 1.75 billion due to heightened competition from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. The end result? A net increase in ending stocks to 310 million bushels. USDA trimmed the season-average price by 15 cents to $10.10 per bushel.
📦 Soybean Products
Soybean Meal: Higher crush pushed U.S. soybean meal production up to 59.85 million short tons. Domestic use increased to 41.8 million, while exports climbed to 18.7 million. The average price dropped $20 to $290/short ton.
Soybean Oil: Biofuel usage surged by 1.6 billion pounds to 15.5 billion. With increased imports and reduced exports, ending stocks rose to 1.67 billion pounds. The projected price was lifted to 53 cents per pound.
🌾 Wheat: Production Up, but Stocks Fall on Export Strength
U.S. wheat production was revised up 8 million bushels to 1.929 billion thanks to higher yields, now pegged at 52.6 bu/acre. Strong early-season sales led USDA to raise export expectations by 25 million to 850 million bushels. Despite larger supplies, these changes pushed ending stocks down to 890 million.
The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $5.40 per bushel.
🌍 Global Highlights: Stocks Trimmed for Corn and Wheat
- World corn ending stocks were cut by 3.2 million metric tons to 272.1 MMT, mainly on reductions for China and India.
- Global wheat stocks fell 1.2 million metric tons to 261.5 MMT due to lower production in Canada and Ukraine.
- Soybean stocks worldwide rose 0.8 million metric tons to 126.1 MMT, led by increases in Brazil and the U.S.
📌 Other Notables
- Rice: U.S. production cut by 7.9 million cwt due to acreage losses from flooding in Arkansas.
- Sorghum: Production lowered by 25 million bushels from June.
- Dairy: All-milk price raised to $22.00/cwt; production increased on stronger per-cow yields.
- Beef & Pork: Mixed changes with lower beef output and higher pork output in second-half 2025.
Report based on USDA WASDE-662, July 11, 2025. All projections subject to future revisions as weather, trade, and policy evolve.
