January 2026 WASDE Report, Beyond the Headline Numbers

The January WASDE did what markets care about most: it moved the stocks narrative. The headline world totals matter, but the cleanest read for price is often World ex-China — because China can swing reported global carry without immediately changing what is actually available to world trade.

Corn

The corn story is straightforward: global stocks rose, but the market reaction makes sense when you separate China from the rest. January lifts World ending stocks to 290.91 MMT (up +11.76 MoM). Of that increase, China accounts for +6.24 MMT, while World ex-China rises +5.52 MMT.

On a YoY basis, the split is even more important: World ending stocks are down -3.79 MMT vs 2024/25, but World ex-China is up +7.99 MMT while China is down -11.78 MMT. In other words: the world total masks a meaningful redistribution of carry.

U.S. balance sheet changes were also material: USDA raised U.S. corn ending stocks to 2.227 billion bushels (up +198 million from December), while lifting the season-average farm price to $4.10/bu. That is a classic “bigger crop, bigger carry” setup — and it puts more weight on demand execution (exports + feed).

Figure 1: Corn — January WASDE

Soybeans

Soybeans are the cleanest ex-China signal this month: China is basically unchanged MoM, and the entire world stocks increase shows up outside China. January lifts World ending stocks to 124.41 MMT (up +2.04 MoM), while World ex-China also rises +2.04 MMT to 80.02 MMT.

On a YoY basis, the move is modest but directionally important: World +1.01 MMT, with ex-China +1.11 MMT and China -0.10 MMT. This is not a giant headline shift — but it reinforces a “comfortable” global carry tone unless demand accelerates.

In the U.S., USDA raised soybean ending stocks to 350 million bushels (up +60 mb MoM), while cutting exports and increasing crush. The season-average farm price was lowered to $10.20/bu. That combination reads bearish unless South American weather or demand changes the trajectory.

Figure 2: Soybeans — January WASDE

Wheat

Wheat is the big YoY story in this report: global ending stocks are projected at 278.25 MMT, up +18.25 MMT vs 2024/25. Importantly, the bulk of that increase is outside China. World ex-China ending stocks jump to 153.41 MMT (up +21.19 MMT YoY), while China is lower YoY by about -2.93 MMT.

MoM, wheat also firmed: World +3.38 MMT and ex-China +3.31 MMT. That is not a friendly setup for a market trying to sustain rallies without a weather or demand catalyst.

In the U.S., wheat ending stocks increased to 926 million bushels (up +25 mb MoM), and the season-average farm price was reduced to $4.90/bu.

Bottom Line

The ex-China lens is the cleanest takeaway across the complex:
• Corn: World stocks rose hard MoM, but the YoY picture is a rebalancing — ex-China higher, China lower.
• Soybeans: Stocks increase is entirely ex-China this month, while the U.S. balance sheet loosens.
• Wheat: The report reinforces a large and growing ex-China wheat cushion, which is a headwind without a new catalyst.