2025 Crop Progress Update (Estimates)
Week Ending October 19, 2025 | Paradigm Futures Analysis
Compiled from independent polling, analyst surveys, and regional field reports while USDA Crop Progress is paused.
If a tree falls in the woods and no one’s there to hear it, does it make a sound?
If the USDA doesn’t report the harvest, does it still happen?
Turns out, it does — and farmers across the Corn Belt are reporting it’s moving faster than normal.
With official USDA Crop Progress reports on hold, we synthesized credible private sources to estimate
current harvest pace versus the five-year average. These figures are not official; they are our
best projections based on the latest independent reports and polling.
Corn Harvest — Estimated Status
National progress is tracking in the upper half of private estimates, with a recent poll placing the U.S. around ~59% complete (range 51–66%). Central and southern Corn Belt states are generally past halfway, while parts of the Upper Midwest are closer to average or a bit behind.
- Ahead of normal: KS, KY, TN; IL/IA generally 50–65% with strong daily gains.
- Near/behind: MN, WI, the Dakotas; NE mixed by region and moisture.
- Early states: TX, NC are largely complete, consistent with typical seasonality.
Soybean Harvest — Estimated Status
Private polling places national soybean progress near ~73% (range 61–82%), indicating a pace well ahead of the five-year average (~51%). The Delta and Southeast are largely wrapped up, and the central Corn Belt is advancing steadily.
- Delta/South: AR, LA, MS, TN are ~80–95%+ complete.
- Corn Belt: IL/IN/OH in the mid-50s to mid-60s; IA ~65–75% depending on district.
- Upper Midwest: MN/ND/SD tracking around normal to modestly ahead; WI moderately behind average.
