BAL 
$61.00  0.29%  
CANE 
$11.62  0.43%  
JO 
$54.00  1.22%  
NIB 
$36.29  1.65%  
IEF 
$94.35  0.02%  
^UGA-IV 
$67.28  0.49%  
UNG 
$18.96  0.37%  
USO 
$78.65  0.96%  
FXA 
$65.82  0.23%  
FXB 
$121.76  0.12%  
FXC 
$71.48  0.04%  
FXE 
$98.77  0.11%  
FXF 
$99.43  0.33%  
FXY 
$57.99  0.38%  
UUP 
$29.10  0.24%  
CORN 
$19.34  1.07%  
SOYB 
$23.97  0.04%  
WEAT 
$5.32  1.12%  
JJC 
$19.56  1.24%  
GLD 
$214.78  1.55%  

Grain and Livestock Markets Mixed Amid Volatile Trading.

Grain Livestock

Row Crops Struggle to Maintain Gains; Cattle Also Hit Near-Term Highs.

Wheat Market Update

This morning, the wheat market saw new highs, only to pull back later in the session. Kent, our market analyst, explains this may be due to profit-taking, although it’s not typical for funds to sell new contract highs. He attributes the initial rise to good crop conditions in the U.S., leading to farmer hedging. Positive reports from recent crop tours in Kansas and Illinois have suggested potentially high yields, adding to the volatility.

Internationally, Paris Milling wheat futures also hit new highs, driven by concerns over global production issues such as dryness in the Black Sea, excessive moisture in parts of Europe, and frost impacts in Russia. Additionally, Australia is facing dryness in some regions, further contributing to global supply concerns.

Corn Market Dynamics

Corn futures did not follow wheat higher, reflecting mixed planting progress reports. Heavy rains in the Northwestern Corn Belt have raised concerns about planting delays. The Eastern Corn Belt, expected to receive significant moisture, saw only limited rainfall, resulting in dry conditions and dust storms. In contrast, areas like Minnesota, Iowa, and eastern Nebraska experienced heavy rainfall, tornadoes, and flooding, which could necessitate replanting. With about 20% of the corn crop still unplanted in some regions and insurance dates looming, prevent plant options are being considered by many growers.

Soybean Market Trends

Soybeans are attempting to hold on to gains amid rumors of old crop business with China, despite no official confirmation from the USDA. Reports suggest two cargos of soybeans for July-August shipment, potentially driven by favorable basis levels in Brazil. The availability of higher ending stocks this year could facilitate these exports, unlike in previous years when tight supplies limited such transactions.

Cattle Market Movement

The cattle market made new highs, supported by strong cash trades and higher boxed beef prices. The upcoming USDA cattle on feed report could influence future price movements. If the report is not bearish, and strong cash trades continue, the market might retest and potentially surpass previous contract highs.

Hog Market Pressures

Conversely, the hog market is under pressure, hitting new lows. The futures market had priced in strong advances in cash hogs, which have not materialized as expected. Slow export pace to China and weaker domestic demand have also contributed to the decline. Technically, breaking below the 200-day moving average has triggered further speculative selling, and the liquidation of long positions by funds continues to weigh on prices.

Overall, the grain and livestock markets remain volatile, influenced by a combination of domestic conditions, international factors, and technical trading dynamics. Market participants are closely watching weather developments, crop reports, and global trade patterns to navigate these fluctuations.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results.

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