Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Futures Rally on Export Strength and Weather Developments
U.S. grain futures are pushing higher Thursday. Support is coming from strong new crop export sales, firm cash prices, and improving technical momentum. Traders appear to be squaring positions ahead of Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report. Additionally, they are monitoring weather forecasts and international flows.
Corn Finds Support Above $4.00, New Crop Sales Surge
Corn futures are seeing midday strength. December contracts are up 5 to 6 ¼ cents. More importantly, they are holding above the key $4.00 level. The national average cash price gained 5 ¾ cents, now sitting at $3.68 ¼.
USDA reported two private export sales. These included 106,680 MT to Mexico and 105,000 MT to Guatemala, both for 2025/26 shipment. Weekly export data showed just 170,428 MT of old crop business — the second lowest of the year. However, new crop bookings came in at 3.16 MMT, blowing past trade estimates. That brings total 2025/26 sales to 11.777 MMT. Only 2021/22 was stronger at this point.
Technically, a close above $4.07 in December corn (ZCZ25) would open the door for more upside. The next target could be $4.40. For protection, traders may consider placing sell stops just below $3.95. Meanwhile, the market is bracing for a large U.S. crop forecast in Tuesday’s report. Therefore, a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” reaction is possible.
Soybeans Bounce on Strong Sales and Rain Prospects
Front-month soybean futures are bouncing midday. Contracts are up 8 to 10 cents. Soymeal is also stronger, up $2.60 to $3.80. The national average cash bean price rose 9 ½ cents to $9.63 ¼.
Weekly export sales were strong. Old crop bookings hit 467,842 MT — a four-week high. That’s 43.8% above the same week last year. New crop sales totaled 545,010 MT. This topped trade expectations and marked a marketing year high.
Soybean meal sales were 281,761 MT. That included 169,393 MT for this year and 112,368 MT for next. Bean oil sales reached 7,039 MT. Both results were within analyst expectations.
Importantly, rain is in the forecast. Over the next 7 days, 1 to 3+ inches are expected across IA, southern WI, northern MO, and northwest IL. This will be key for pod fill during August.
Brazil shipped 12.257 MMT of soybeans in July. This was a record for the month, up 8.95% from last year. August exports are estimated at 8.15 MMT, which is also ahead of last year. Meanwhile, China imported 11.67 MMT in July — a monthly record — though slightly below June’s 12.26 MMT.
Wheat Futures Rally on Strong HRW Sales
Wheat futures are rallying midday. KC HRW is up 10 to 11 cents. Chicago wheat gained 11 cents. MPLS spring wheat added 6 to 7 ¼ cents.
USDA reported 737,831 MT of total wheat sales for the week ending July 31. HRW led with 414,312 MT. This beat analyst expectations and marked a marketing year high.
Source: USDA Export Sales Report | Chart images © Paradigm Futures
