February WASDE: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Outlook

February’s WASDE leaves U.S. corn and wheat balance sheets mostly steady, with only incremental changes, while soybeans increasingly hinge on a larger South American crop and a steady build in world stocks outside China.

Corn: Higher Exports, Comfortable Carry

For 2025/26, USDA keeps U.S. corn yield at 186.5 bu/acre and production at 17.021 billion bushels. Domestic use is unchanged at 13.170 billion bushels, including 6.2 billion for feed and residual and 6.97 billion for food, seed, and industrial use, with ethanol and by‑products accounting for 5.6 billion. The key shift this month is exports: USDA raises the export projection by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion on strong sales and inspections through January.

With no change to supply, higher exports pull projected 2025/26 ending stocks down by 100 million bushels, from 2.227 to 2.127 billion. Even after the cut, stocks remain well above the tight 2023/24 level, keeping the stocks‑to‑use ratio comfortable. USDA leaves the season‑average farm price unchanged at $4.10 per bushel, signaling that, for now, the agency views the balance as adequate despite stronger export demand.

Soybeans: South American Weight and Rising ex‑China Stocks

USDA leaves the 2025/26 U.S. soybean balance sheet unchanged versus January. Area stays at 81.2 million acres planted and 80.4 million harvested, with yield at 53.0 bu/acre and production at 4.262 billion bushels. Crush is held at 2.57 billion bushels, exports at 1.575 billion, and ending stocks at 350 million, with the season‑average farm price steady at $10.20 per bushel. On paper, the U.S. profile is neutral; the real story is offshore.

South America drives the change. USDA increases Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop by 2 million metric tons to 180 million on higher area and stronger yield performance, supported by favorable weather and state‑level reporting. Paraguay’s crop rises 0.5 million tons to 11.5 million on consistent beneficial rainfall. These upgrades expand global soybean supply and push crush higher in Brazil and Paraguay to satisfy firm soybean meal demand, particularly from the EU, which has leaned into meal on competitive pricing.

China’s role is pivotal but steady. USDA keeps China’s 2025/26 imports essentially unchanged at 112 million tons, with crush at 108 million and ending stocks near 44.4 million. The report emphasizes that if China chooses to buy more U.S. beans, it would mostly reshuffle trade flows—more U.S. cargoes into China and fewer U.S. shipments to other destinations—rather than meaningfully raise global import demand. For U.S. exporters, the key risk is not a collapse in demand, but the degree to which a larger Brazilian surplus captures marginal business.

The world stocks picture sharpen that point. World soybean ending stocks excluding China have risen three consecutive years and now sit at a five‑year high. After dipping to roughly 69.4 million tons in 2022/23, ex‑China stocks rebounded to about 71.8 million in 2023/24, climbed to 79.2 million in 2024/25, and are projected at 81.1 million in 2025/26. Most of that cushion resides in Brazil and other exporters. Structurally, this build in ex‑China stocks caps upside for global prices unless either South American weather turns sharply adverse or demand outside China accelerates faster than USDA currently assumes.

Wheat: Slightly Looser U.S. Balance, Ample Global Supply

For 2025/26 U.S. wheat, USDA leaves acreage and yield unchanged at 45.3 million acres planted, 37.2 million harvested, and 53.3 bu/acre, producing 1.985 billion bushels. The main adjustment is to domestic use: food use is trimmed by 5 million bushels to 967 million based on the latest flour milling data, partially offset by a marginal uptick in seed use. Feed and residual remain at 100 million bushels, and exports stay at 900 million.

With slightly lower domestic disappearance and unchanged exports, total use slips and projected 2025/26 ending stocks edge up from 926 to 931 million bushels. That leaves carryout about 9 percent above last year and the largest since 2019/20. The season‑average farm price projection remains at $4.90 per bushel, consistent with a market that is well supplied but still responsive to regional quality and logistics.

Globally, wheat supplies are trimmed modestly on lower beginning stocks and reduced production in Turkey and Mongolia, partially offset by a record 27.8‑million‑ton crop in Argentina. World trade is raised to 222 million tons as larger exports from Argentina and Canada more than offset a reduction from the EU. World wheat ending stocks ease to 277.5 million tons—slightly below January but still at a five‑year high—driven by significant stock increases among major exporters. In practical terms, the global wheat market remains broadly ample, limiting the scope for sustained price strength absent a new weather or geopolitical shock.

Source: USDA WASDE, February 10, 2026; Paradigm Futures analysis.

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