Egypt Grain & Feed Update – Marketing Year 2025/26
USDA’s Cairo post outlines a shifting grain balance in Egypt. Demand keeps rising with population growth. Policy choices and currency dynamics also shape outcomes. As a result, Egypt remains a pivotal buyer in global grain markets.
Wheat: Modest Production Gain, Firm Import Needs
USDA projects wheat production at 9.3 MMT for MY 2025/26. That is a slight increase from last year. The gain comes from a larger harvested area and targeted support programs. Government incentives encouraged planting, while the Agriculture Research Center (ARC) introduced improved practices. ARC promotes raised-bed cultivation and certified high-yield seed varieties. These methods lower water and seed use while improving uniformity and yields.
Trade & Supply Balance Table
Even with these advances, Egypt still relies heavily on imports. USDA expects wheat imports near 12.7 MMT. Russia and Ukraine continue to dominate Egypt’s supply because of freight advantages and competitive prices. Domestic bread demand also stays firm. USDA estimates total wheat use at 20.3 MMT.
Stocks improve as well. Post report estimates ending stocks rise to about 4.5 MMT Compared to the USDA estimate of 3.374 MMT. The increase reflects steady imports and ongoing domestic procurement.
Corn: Weather Pressure, Higher Import Pull
Corn production slips to 6.7 MMT. Excess heat and insect pressure weighed on fields. Modern irrigation and better hybrids helped, yet not enough to offset losses. Therefore, Egypt turns to the world market.
USDA forecasts corn imports at 9.5 MMT. Poultry feed demand is the key driver. Notably, U.S. corn regained traction in 2025 on price and quality. U.S. shipments improved versus the prior year.
Stocks tighten. USDA sees corn ending stocks near 1.3 MMT. The drawdown underscores Egypt’s structural reliance on imports to balance feed needs.
Rice: Bigger Area, Better Buffer
Rice expands this season. Farmers favor rice due to lower costs and solid margins. USDA estimates milled rice output at 4.2 MMT. New climate-resilient varieties also support yields in the Nile Delta.
Meanwhile, imports ease. USDA puts rice imports at about 140,000 MT. Some exports continue to nearby markets despite limits. Stocks improve as production rises.
Consequently, ending stocks climb to roughly 630,000 MT. The buffer helps stabilize local supply.
What This Means for Markets
Egypt’s buying pattern remains central to global wheat and corn pricing. Freight spreads, currency moves, and Black Sea availability will steer tender results. In addition, domestic stocks offer a cushion but do not remove import needs.
For risk managers, the signal is clear. Track tenders, freight economics, and currency shifts. These forces will guide basis, spreads, and price levels into 2026.
