China Grain & Feed Update: Production, Policy, and Trade Shifts in MY2025/26
China grain and feed sector continues to prioritize domestic food security amid ongoing economic pressures and shifting trade dynamics. According to the USDA’s latest GAIN report, production of major grains is trending upward in marketing year (MY) 2025/26, while government efforts to restrict imports remain in full force.
Corn: Higher Production, Lower Imports
China’s corn production is forecast at 298 million metric tons (MMT) in MY2025/26, up 3 MMT from the previous year, supported by enhanced yield strategies and the expansion of high-standard farmland. Despite weather-related planting delays, yields are expected to improve. However, corn imports are projected at just 8 MMT, up slightly from 7 MMT in MY2024/25 but far below historical norms.
China has continued to actively restrict grain imports through a combination of regulatory measures, including delayed TRQ allocations, tighter bonded zone controls, and direct pressure on importers. The result has been a significant drop in U.S. corn exports to China and increased sourcing from countries like Brazil.
Wheat: Policy Support and Rising Feed Demand
Wheat production is projected at 141 MMT for MY2025/26, with government irrigation programs helping offset regional drought conditions. Quality has reportedly improved, including higher gluten content, while the government activated its Minimum Support Price (MSP) program in June for the first time in years to support market prices.
Wheat imports are expected to climb to 6 MMT (up from 4.5 MMT) as wheat becomes a more cost-effective feed grain. Buyers have resumed foreign sourcing—acquiring 400,000–500,000 MT from Australia and Canada for delivery this summer. Trade tensions with the U.S. continue to steer China toward alternative suppliers.
Rice: Drought Impact and Strategic Stock Releases
Rice production remains stable at 146 MMT, though early-season crops were affected by widespread drought, particularly in Guangxi, Anhui, and Jiangsu provinces. Severe meteorological drought conditions were observed in over 97% of Guangxi, the worst since 1961 for that period.
Rice consumption is forecast to rise to 148 MMT, fueled in part by anticipated release of aged government rice reserves to meet feed and industrial demand. If corn supplies remain tight, reserve rice auctions may be triggered to stabilize the market before the new corn harvest arrives.
Grain Trade Outlook: Tariffs and Import Strategy
Despite a May 12 agreement between the U.S. and China to reduce some retaliatory tariffs, many duties remain in place. For instance, corn imports from the U.S. still face effective tariff rates up to 95%, contributing to China’s continued diversification of supply away from traditional partners.
The Chinese government’s grain import policy reflects a broader national strategy focused on self-reliance and security. Through improved yields, reserve utilization, and administrative controls, Beijing is shaping both the domestic and global grain markets heading into 2026.
