On April 7, 2025, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service released its latest Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, diving deep into Argentina’s oilseed scene for the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY). It zooms in on soybeans, sunflower seeds, and peanuts, painting a vivid picture of where things are headed—think shifting farming trends, production guesses, how much gets eaten or shipped off, and what it all means for Argentina’s heavyweight status in crushing and exporting oilseeds. Here’s a friendly rundown of what the report uncovers, sprinkled with some handy data visuals pulled straight from its pages.
Overview of Argentina’s Oilseed Sector
Argentina’s oilseed game is a big deal for its farming economy, and soybeans are the undisputed champ, leading the pack in both production and exports. Sunflower seeds and peanuts trail behind, but they’ve got their own stories to tell. The report lays out how these crops are set to take different paths in MY 2025/2026:
- Soybeans: A contraction in planted area is expected due to a shift back to corn rotations, but crush volumes will rise, supported by strong margins and imports from Paraguay.
- Sunflower Seeds: Stable planted area and strong yields maintain production levels, with expansion into marginal lands signaling growth potential.
- Peanuts: A sharp decline in production is forecast due to falling prices and reduced profitability, following a record-high harvest in MY 2024/2025.
Despite challenges like rising production costs and weed pressures, Argentina’s crushing industry and export-oriented strategy continue to solidify its position as the world’s top exporter of soybean meal and oil.
Soybeans: Area Contraction but Robust Crushing
Production Trends:
- Planted Area: The report forecasts a reduction of approximately one million hectares in soybean planted area, dropping to 16.5 million hectares in MY 2025/2026 from 17.5 million in MY 2024/2025. This shift reflects a return to corn-heavy rotations after a pest-driven soy surge in the prior year.
- Production: Total soybean output is projected at 49.5 million metric tons (MMT), slightly up from 49 MMT in MY 2024/2025, despite the area decline, due to stable yields and carry-in stocks.
- Challenges: Rising production costs, particularly on rented land (over 75% of soybean fields), and weed pressures from herbicide-resistant species like glyphosate-resistant amaranth are squeezing margins. Additional herbicide costs can exceed $260 per hectare.
Consumption and Crush:
- Crush Volumes: Soybean crush is expected to increase modestly to 43 MMT, driven by favorable margins ($20-25 per MT) and high carryover stocks (10 MMT). Argentina’s 344 crushing facilities, concentrated along the Paraná River, operate at over 60% capacity.
- Imports: To sustain crush levels, Argentina will continue importing soybeans from Paraguay, valued for their high protein content and early harvest timing.
Trade:
- Exports: Whole bean exports are projected to rise 17% to 5.5-6 MMT, supported by a temporary export tax reduction (from 33% to 26%) and strong demand from China, which absorbs nearly 90% of Argentina’s soybean exports.
- Imports: Soybean imports, primarily from Paraguay, are expected to decline slightly to 5.8 MMT due to reduced Paraguayan production.
| Metric | MY 2023/2024 | MY 2024/2025 | MY 2025/2026 |
| Area Planted (1000 HA) | 16,500 | 17,500 | 16,500 |
| Production (1000 MT) | 48,210 | 49,000 | 49,500 |
| Crush (1000 MT) | 43,400 | 41,500 | 42,000 |
| Exports (1000 MT) | 4,510 | 4,700 | 5,500 |
| Ending Stocks (1000 MT) | 6,764 | 9,264 | 10,764 |
Sunflower Seeds: Stability and Expansion
Production Trends:
- Planted Area: Sunflower seed area is forecast to remain stable at 2.05 million hectares, supported by strong yields (2 MT/HA) and expansion into marginal lands in Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Chaco.
- Production: Output is projected at 4.1 MMT, slightly up from 4.05 MMT in MY 2024/2025, driven by improved hybrid varieties that reduce losses from birds and moisture.
- Agronomic Factors: Timely planting (late November vs. early December) can boost yields by up to 25%, highlighting the crop’s sensitivity to sowing windows.
Consumption and Crush:
- Crush: Sunflower seed crush will remain steady at 3.8 MMT, with most production processed into oil and meal for domestic and export markets. Smaller, regional facilities dominate sunflower crushing, unlike the large-scale soybean plants.
- Domestic Use: Sunflower oil is a staple in Argentine households, but domestic demand is stable with minimal growth expected.
Trade:
- Exports: Less than 1% of sunflower seeds are exported unprocessed (75,000 MT), with most converted into oil and meal. A temporary export tax cut (from 7% to 5.5%) may marginally boost confectionary seed exports.
- Sunflower Oil: About 60% of sunflower oil production (1 MMT) is exported, primarily to India, which accounts for 50% of Argentina’s sunflower oil shipments.
Peanuts: Sharp Decline After Record Year
Production Trends:
- Planted Area: Peanut area is expected to drop to 410,000 hectares from 485,000 in MY 2024/2025, a response to falling prices and lower processor rents ($1,000/HA vs. higher rates previously).
- Production: Output is forecast at 1.355 MMT, down from a record 1.6 MMT in MY 2024/2025, due to reduced area and stable yields (3.3 MT/HA).
- Market Dynamics: Oversupply from the prior year and high carry-in stocks (603,000 MT) are depressing prices, discouraging new growers who entered the market in MY 2024/2025.
Consumption and Crush:
- Domestic Use: Peanut consumption remains low, with minimal cultural tradition for peanut-based products. Most peanuts are exported rather than crushed domestically.
- Crush: Crushing activity is negligible (160,000 MT), with no significant increase expected due to limited demand for peanut oil.
Trade:
- Exports: Peanut exports are projected to decline to 880,000 MT from 1.05 MMT, driven by lower production and a stronger Argentine peso reducing competitiveness. The EU remains the primary market, valuing Argentina’s low-aflatoxin peanuts.
- Policy: The elimination of peanut export taxes in January 2025 is unlikely to boost exports significantly, as the sector is already export-oriented.
| Metric | MY 2023/2024 | MY 2024/2025 | MY 2025/2026 |
| Area Planted (1000 HA) | 432 | 485 | 410 |
| Production (1000 MT) | 1,425 | 1,600 | 1,355 |
| Exports (1000 MT) | 917 | 1,050 | 880 |
| Ending Stocks (1000 MT) | 426 | 603 | 748 |
Meals and Oils: Export Dominance
Protein Meals:
- Soybean Meal: Production is projected at 32.8 MMT, with exports near 29 MMT, primarily to the EU, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia. Domestic consumption is minimal (<5%), driven by modest growth in poultry and pork.
- Sunflower Meal: Exports reached a 21-year high in 2024 and will remain robust (1.1 MMT), with limited domestic use due to lower protein content.
- Peanut Meal: Minimal production (93,000 MT) is consumed locally or exported to Chile for salmon feed.
Vegetable Oils:
- Soybean Oil: Production will rise to 8.48 MMT, with 70% (6.15 MMT) exported. Biodiesel production (1.75 MMT) is a key domestic driver, supported by a 6% blending mandate.
- Sunflower Oil: Stable at 1.693 MMT, with 60% exported to India and the EU. Domestic use dominates food consumption.
- Peanut Oil: Exports to China and the EU are steady, with potential for marginal growth.
Broader Context and Challenges
- Economic Factors: High inflation and rising land rental rates are eroding farmer margins, particularly for soybeans. Improved credit access (8% USD rates) offers some relief, but small producers face financial stress.
- Policy Impacts: Temporary export tax reductions (soybeans: 33% to 26%; soybean meal/oil: 31% to 24.5%; sunflower seeds: 7% to 5.5%; peanuts: eliminated) are expected to be extended, boosting export competitiveness.
- Logistics: The Paraná River system and Rosario port complex underpin Argentina’s crushing and export efficiency, though high domestic freight costs favor whole bean exports from southern regions like Bahía Blanca.
Conclusion
Argentina’s oilseed sector in MY 2025/2026 reflects a complex interplay of agronomic, economic, and policy factors. While soybean area contracts, robust crushing and exports maintain Argentina’s global dominance in meal and oil markets. Sunflower seeds show resilience and growth potential, while peanuts face a market correction after a record year. With favorable crush margins, strategic imports, and export tax relief, Argentina is well-positioned to navigate challenges and sustain its leadership in the global oilseed trade.
For traders, investors, or policymakers, the report underscores the importance of monitoring crop rotation trends, global price dynamics, and Argentina’s policy environment to anticipate market shifts. The data tables provided offer a snapshot of the sector’s trajectory, highlighting both opportunities and risks in this critical agricultural powerhouse.
