Argentina Oilseeds Update: Weather Relief, Crush Strength, and a Sunflower Shift

USDA FAS Buenos Aires’ February 25, 2026 Oilseeds and Products Update keeps the core story intact. Argentina heads into 2025/26 with a solid soybean crop, record‑setting sunflower fundamentals, and a sharp pullback in peanut area. Timely February rains salvaged yield potential after a stressful January, while crush margins and product exports continue to drive how beans and seeds move through the system.

Soybeans: stable 2025/26 crop, crush over exports

FAS Buenos Aires pegs 2025/26 soybean production at 48 million metric tons (MMT). The forecast rests on 16.5 million hectares planted and 15.8 million hectares harvested, for an average combined yield near 3.38 tons per hectare. Early‑ to mid‑February rainfall stabilized crop conditions after a hot, dry January. First‑crop soybean yields now look largely “locked in” and strong, while second‑crop beans show more variation with local moisture.

Use, not production, carries the signal. For 2025/26, soybean crush is set at 43 MMT, 1 MMT above the prior season, as trade flows move back toward more traditional patterns and China eases off last year’s surge in whole‑bean buying. FAS forecasts 2025/26 soybean exports at 6 MMT, down from a revised 12.7 MMT in 2024/25, and trims imports to 7 MMT as more domestic beans flow into crushers instead of the export channel.

In the nearer‑term 2024/25 year, farmer selling has slowed to the weakest five‑year average pace at this point in the season. Sub‑300 USD/ton harvest prices, high logistics and input costs, and earlier forward sales to cover expenses all weigh on market arrivals. FAS cuts 2024/25 crush to 42 MMT, 1 MMT below its last estimate, and notes that December crush ran 12 percent under November and 15 percent below the prior December as whole‑bean exports to China drew down supplies. Even after a 600,000‑ton export downgrade, 2024/25 soybean exports still reach a projected record 12.7 MMT—about three times last year and the highest in 15 years. Ending stocks land near 4.3 MMT, lower year‑on‑year but above the previous update because of the export revision.

Weather: from January stress to February recovery

Weather still frames the 2025/26 soybean story. January brought below‑normal precipitation and frequent 35°C days with little cloud cover. Many producers described those conditions as crop “stress” rather than a repeat of the severe 2022/23 drought. Field checks in southern Córdoba found generally favorable stands, and growers there now look for average yields in the 3.5–4.0 MT/ha range despite the early heat.

Carnival‑period storms and follow‑on systems then delivered an estimated 20–100+ millimeters of rain across the core soybean belt—Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Ríos. Cumulative February rainfall should finish at or above 150 millimeters in many locations. These rains rebuilt soil moisture and supported root development as they soaked the profile rather than skimming the surface. Southeastern Buenos Aires remains the weak link after near‑record‑low January rainfall in areas such as Azul and Tandil. The report stresses just how “spotty” this season’s pattern looks: within 15–30 kilometers, contacts can see scorched second‑crop fields with losses near 30 percent and, at the same time, lush fields with a dozen or more pods already set.

Sunflowerseed: record exports and strong margins

Sunflowerseed is the clear outperformer in this update. FAS now places 2025/26 production at 5.8 MMT, up 500,000 tons from the prior forecast, on 2.7 million hectares of planted area—about half a million more than last season—with a projected yield of 2.2 MT/ha versus a five‑year average near 1.4 MT/ha. By late February, farmers had harvested around 30 percent of the crop, with the northern belt finally achieving intended plantings after several dry years and southern Buenos Aires still in flowering and filling under drier conditions.

Sunflower now competes head‑to‑head with soybeans and often looks cheaper to grow. Producers point to drought tolerance and a lighter input bill—mainly seed, glyphosate, and boron, with less fertilizer—at a time of volatile input costs. FAS raises 2025/26 sunflower crush to 5.35 MMT on larger supply and firm margins, with crushers drawing on idle capacity and adding new plants. Sunflowerseed, oil, and meal exports should set fresh records again, with the EU as the top whole‑seed buyer, India taking roughly half of sunflower oil exports, and Iraq emerging as a notable buyer as it replaces Ukrainian origin.

Peanuts: sharp acreage contraction after a glut

Peanuts tell a classic post‑boom story. For 2025/26, FAS holds planted area at 400,000 hectares, down 132,000 from the 532,000 reported in 2024/25 as many first‑time growers walk away after last year’s record crop and weaker harvest prices. Producers in southern Córdoba, southern Santa Fe, and northern Buenos Aires report mostly good to excellent stands in the filling stage, with yields largely secure even if late‑season dryness returns. Harvest should start in early to mid‑April.

FAS expects 2025/26 peanut yields to improve year‑on‑year thanks to favorable weather and wider use of improved varieties, offsetting some of the acreage cut and supporting more stable per‑hectare margins. For 2024/25, the report estimates production at 1.86 MMT on 532,000 hectares with average yields around 3.5 MT/ha, and keeps exports at 1.10 MMT (in‑shell basis) after about 904,000 tons had already shipped with two months left in the marketing year. Strong demand from the EU and Australia, plus Argentina’s reputation for high‑quality peanuts, continues to support export flows even as local area contracts.

Policy, trade flows, and what it means for the market

On the policy front, FAS assumes Argentina will keep export taxes in place for the coming year. The report does not expect another temporary tax holiday like the one that previously unleashed outsized soybean sales to China. Without that one‑off incentive, exports should slide back toward more normal levels. That shift leaves more beans for domestic crushers and reinforces Argentina’s role as a major exporter of soymeal and soyoil rather than just raw beans.

The 2025/26 oilseeds balance therefore hinges less on production surprises and more on allocation. A weather‑sensitive but solid soybean crop increasingly feeds crush. Sunflower rides high prices, low input intensity, and record export demand. Peanuts retrench after a one‑year surge in area and output. For market participants, this update mainly fine‑tunes the Argentine balance sheet around those themes. Weather in southern Buenos Aires, farmer selling behavior, and the interplay between local policy and demand from China, India, the EU, and the Middle East will drive the bigger swings from here.

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) GAIN — “Oilseeds and Products Update,” Buenos Aires, Argentina, Report AR2026‑0002, February 25, 2026; Paradigm Futures analysis.