USDA September WASDE Report – Key Takeaways
The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) delivered important adjustments across corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton. The balance sheets show shifting acreage, modest yield revisions, and changing trade expectations, setting the stage for harvest and global trade negotiations.
U.S. Ending Stocks
USDA pegged 2025/26 U.S. corn ending stocks at 2.10 billion bushels, nearly unchanged from last month but still elevated relative to recent years. Soybean carryout increased to 300 million bushels, reflecting heavier supplies despite softer exports. Wheat stocks declined to 844 million bushels, while cotton remained steady at 3.6 million bales.
World Ending Stocks
Globally, USDA trimmed corn stocks to 281.4 MMT, down 1.1 MMT from August. Soybean stocks fell to 124.0 MMT, underscoring tightness in South America and weaker global production. Wheat inventories rose to 264.1 MMT, as strong harvests in Australia, the EU, and Russia added to supply. Cotton slipped modestly to 73.1 million bales, the lowest level in four years:contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0}.
Corn: Acres, Yields, and Production
Corn saw one of the largest adjustments in this report. USDA added 1.3 million acres of harvested area, bringing the total to 90.0 million acres — the largest since 1933. Planted area rose to 98.7 million acres, the highest since 1936. Despite this increase, yield was cut by 2.1 bushels per acre, dropping to 186.7 bpa. This was enough to offset some of the acreage expansion but still leaves total production at a massive 16.8 billion bushels.
On the demand side, USDA raised exports by 100 million bushels to a record 3.0 billion, citing strong U.S. competitiveness and robust early-season sales. Feed and residual use held steady at 6.1 billion bushels, while food, seed, and industrial use stayed at 6.98 billion. Ending stocks slipped marginally to 2.10 billion bushels, while the average farm price was unchanged at $3.90/bu. The market reaction was muted, with December corn futures staying in a tight range of $4.14–$4.25 following the report:contentReference[oaicite:1]{index=1}.
Soybeans: Acres, Yields, and Trade
Soybean harvested area was revised slightly higher to 80.3 million acres, up 0.2 million from August. Despite the acreage boost, yields were nudged down by 0.1 bushels per acre to 53.5 bpa. This compares closely to last year’s September estimate of 53.7 bpa but remains well above the 2024 realized yield of 50.7 bpa. Production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels.
On the demand side, USDA cut exports by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion, citing growing competition from Argentina, Russia, and Canada. Crush demand was raised by 15 million bushels, reflecting stronger soybean meal exports, while residual use ticked higher. Ending stocks rose to 300 million bushels, up from last month’s 290 million. The season-average farm price was trimmed to $10.00/bu, down 10 cents from August.
While the supply picture looks solid, demand uncertainty remains the headline risk. USDA’s lower export forecast reflects concerns over Chinese demand. Scheduled U.S.–China trade discussions in Europe from September 14–17 could prove pivotal for the market, as any signs of renewed buying would help ease bearish sentiment:contentReference[oaicite:2]{index=2}.
Wheat
U.S. wheat exports were raised 25 million bushels to 900 million, largely on strength in Hard Red Winter sales. This reduced ending stocks to 844 million bushels, compared with 869 million in August. USDA also lowered the season-average farm price by 20 cents to $5.10/bu.
Cotton
USDA nudged cotton production higher by 10,000 bales to 13.22 million. Yield slipped slightly to 861 lbs/acre. With no changes to use or exports, ending stocks stayed flat at 3.6 million bales. The season-average price projection was unchanged at 64 cents/lb.
Market Context
This month’s WASDE reinforces abundant supplies of both corn and soybeans, with record acreage driving large production. Demand is strong for corn, particularly in exports, while soybeans face continued pressure from global competition and uncertainty surrounding China. Wheat balances tightened on stronger exports, and cotton remains stable. With harvest approaching, futures markets will closely track realized yields and trade developments, particularly U.S.–China negotiations.
