Mexico remains one of the most important demand stories in global grain markets. Despite being a major producer of corn, wheat, and sorghum, domestic production continues to fall short of the country’s growing feed and food requirements, leaving Mexico increasingly dependent upon imported grain.
Why It Matters: Mexico is expected to import more corn than it produces during the 2026/27 marketing year, reinforcing one of the largest sources of demand for U.S. corn exports.
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts Mexican corn production at 24.3 million metric tons during the 2026/27 marketing year, down roughly two percent from the previous year as higher production costs and low domestic prices discourage planting decisions. Harvested acreage is expected to decline four percent to 6.4 million hectares.
The decline follows a modest recovery in the 2025/26 crop when production rebounded to 24.7 MMT after reaching 23.1 MMT in 2024/25. Despite this improvement, Mexican corn production remains below long-term averages and well below domestic consumption requirements.
Mexican Corn Demand Continues to Expand
Total corn consumption is projected to rise to 52.5 MMT during the 2026/27 marketing year. Feed demand accounts for most of the growth as the poultry, egg, and swine industries continue to expand. Feed and residual use is forecast at 30.3 MMT, while food, seed, and industrial demand is expected to reach 22.2 MMT.
This leaves Mexico with a substantial production deficit.
Domestic production of 24.3 MMT covers less than half of total corn demand, requiring significant imports to balance the market. Corn imports are forecast at 27.0 MMT during 2026/27, up from 26.5 MMT this year and nearly 4 MMT larger than domestic production itself.
The United States Remains the Dominant Supplier
The United States continues to dominate Mexico’s corn import market. From October 2025 through April 2026, Mexico imported 14.7 MMT of corn, with nearly all shipments originating from the United States. Approximately 65 percent of imported corn enters Mexico by rail while the remaining 35 percent arrives through Gulf Coast ports.
White corn imports have also increased substantially. Imports rose 49 percent year-over-year to more than 500,000 metric tons, with virtually all supplies sourced from the United States.
The continued growth in Mexican livestock production remains one of the most important sources of demand for U.S. corn exports.
Rising Costs Pressure Mexican Producers
Higher input costs continue to challenge profitability for Mexican farmers. Urea prices increased 42 percent from the previous year, while diammonium phosphate prices rose nine percent. Diesel prices increased seven percent during the same period.
At the same time, domestic white corn prices in major producing regions have fallen roughly 20 percent from the previous year. Many producers in states such as Jalisco, Michoacán, and Guanajuato are considering switching acreage from corn to sorghum due to lower production costs.
Government support programs largely target small farms and have had limited success in encouraging additional commercial corn production.
Livestock Expansion Supports Long-Term Demand
Mexico’s poultry and swine industries continue to drive grain consumption higher. Nearly half of the country’s yellow corn consumption occurs in the Bajío region, which includes Jalisco, Guanajuato, Michoacán, and Querétaro. Additional demand centers include La Laguna, Veracruz, Puebla, Sinaloa, and Sonora.
As feed demand expands, Mexico’s dependence upon imported grain is likely to continue increasing.
What It Means for U.S. Grain Markets
Mexico remains the largest export customer for U.S. corn and one of the most reliable demand sources in the world grain market. While domestic Mexican production fluctuates due to weather, water availability, and producer economics, livestock expansion continues to support grain imports.
The current USDA outlook suggests Mexico will import more corn than it produces during the upcoming marketing year. That trend reinforces the importance of Mexican demand to the U.S. balance sheet and provides long-term support for export prospects.
For corn producers, the story remains relatively straightforward: Mexico continues to consume more grain than it can produce, and the United States remains the primary supplier positioned to fill that gap.
