May 2025 WASDE: Supply Shifts and Market Implications

The USDA’s May WASDE report marked the first projections for the 2025/26 marketing year. With updated acreage, yield expectations, and domestic/global balance sheets, here’s a breakdown of key highlights for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, and wheat—along with what traders and hedgers should be watching going forward.

Corn

• Total Supply: 17,260 million bushels → 438.5 MMT
• Total Exports: 2,675 million bushels → 67.9 MMT
• Total Usage: 15,460 million bushels → 392.9 MMT
• Ending Stocks: 1,800 million bushels → 45.7 MMT

Outlook: U.S. corn production projected at a record 15.82 billion bushels, driven by increased acreage and a yield forecast of 181.0 bu/acre. Domestic use and exports are expected to rise modestly, but ending stocks increase by nearly 385 million bushels over last year.

Global Insight: While U.S. stocks are rising, 2025-26 projected ending stocks came in 1.8 bb lower than analysts’ pre-report estimates. Global corn ending stocks projected to fall to 277.8 MMT—the lowest level since 2013/14. This tightening global picture, especially due to reductions in Brazil and Ukraine, adds a bullish undertone for longer-term global fundamentals.

Soybeans

• Total Supply: 4,710 million bushels → 128.2 MMT
• Total Exports: 1,815 million bushels → 49.4 MMT
• Total Usage: 4,415 million bushels → 120.2 MMT
• Ending Stocks: 295 million bushels → 8.0 MMT

Outlook: Soybean production forecast at 4.34 billion bushels with yields at 52.5 bu/acre. Despite higher crush and export demand, ending stocks are projected to fall 55 million bushels from last year—underscoring a tighter domestic balance sheet heading into summer.

Soybean Meal

Outlook: With strong soybean crush volumes projected, soybean meal supply is ample. Export demand rises by 2 million short tons, driven by continued growth from Latin American and Asian buyers. Ending stocks remain tight, hovering near pipeline levels.

Wheat

• Total Supply: 2,882 million bushels → 78.4 MMT
• Total Exports: 800 million bushels → 21.8 MMT
• Total Usage: 1,959 million bushels → 53.3 MMT
• Ending Stocks: 923 million bushels → 25.1 MMT

Outlook: Wheat supplies increased 2% over last year due to higher carry-in stocks, despite reduced harvested area. Exports forecast to decline slightly amid increased global competition. Ending stocks are the highest since the 2018/19 season, providing some cushion to the balance sheet.

Global Insight: Global wheat production is forecast at a record 808.5 MMT. While China and Pakistan are expected to draw down stocks, the EU, U.S., and India show moderate increases. Global ending stocks projected at 265.7 MMT, up 1.4 MMT from last year.

Other Highlights from May WASDE

• U.S. Rice: Imports rise to a record, but lower production trims supply. Ending stocks fall slightly year-over-year.
• Cotton: U.S. production steady at 14.5 million bales; exports up, but stocks also increase to 5.2 million bales.
• Dairy: Milk output revised higher; prices for butter and cheese rise on continued strength in exports.

Traders and hedgers should closely monitor summer weather developments, as both acreage finalization and yield potential are sensitive to June and July conditions. This report sets the stage—but Mother Nature will decide the outcome.

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