Kent Beadle on the July Grain Market Outlook: Soybeans, Corn, and Trade Risks
With a sharp 4% improvement in crop ratings and a market already nervous about Chinese demand, soybeans have struggled to hold recent price levels. In a recent interview on Farm Journal’s Markets Now, Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures offered a straightforward analysis of where things stand—and what may lie ahead.
Key Takeaways :
- Crop Ratings: Soybeans now sit at 70% good-to-excellent—one of the biggest week-over-week jumps on record for mid-July.
- Yield Outlook: The market appears to be pricing in a yield close to 53 bpa, just above USDA trendline. Still, Beadle warns August weather will ultimately decide the outcome.
- Demand Struggles: Despite strong domestic crush margins, export demand—especially from China—remains a key question mark heading into Q4.
- Technical Support: The $9.70–$9.50 zone could offer strong technical support for new crop contracts, especially given current prices sit well below the cost of production.
Corn and Cattle Outlooks Also in Focus
In addition to soybeans, Beadle noted December corn is likely trading yields near 186 bpa with a +2 billion bushel carryout being priced in. The wide Dec–July spread is historically rare and points to long-term storage incentives. Meanwhile, cattle markets remain supported by tight supplies, strong cash trade, and export restrictions affecting Brazilian imports.
“The biggest question right now isn’t if the crop is big—it’s how much of it will actually come to market,” Beadle emphasized.
