Hog Crush

Time to Act: Hog Crush Margins Offer Rare Hedging Window

Time to Act: Hog Crush Margins Offer Rare Hedging Window

As of mid-July, the December 2025 hog crush remains historically strong, hovering near the $60–63 range despite a brief pullback early in the week. For producers, this is a signal worth taking seriously. Especially if you have been on the fence about utilizing futures hedging in the past.

December 2025 Hog Crush Chart

Margins in this zone have historically provided favorable opportunities for forward-looking risk management. The chart above, aligned with historical crush models, shows we’re currently operating in the upper end of the long-term profitability range—a level rarely sustained for long.

While market optimism may be high, producers are reminded that strong historical margins don’t last forever. The current environment continues to offer opportunities for structured margin protection heading into Q4.

One of the major benefits of using futures hedging is, when the markets allow, you can look months into the future and choose to lock in the gross margins that work for you.

Allowing you to focus on being a more efficient producer, as opposed to worrying about the market.

ISU Hog Crush Model Chart

📰 Stay Ahead with Premium Market Insights

As we covered in last week’s Premium Newsletter , the current hog crush window may not last long. Our subscribers receive early alerts, chart visuals, and margin tracking to help navigate key livestock market shifts.

Maintaining Flexibility in a Volatile Market

Producers evaluating risk management decisions may wish to explore tools that help balance margin protection with market flexibility. In volatile markets, many operators incorporate strategies that allow for adaptability in case of changing feed costs or hog prices.

Every operation is different, and selecting the right risk management approach depends on your specific goals, costs, and market exposure. Consult with a qualified risk advisor to determine how current crush values align with your operation’s targets.

📘 Hedging Primer: How the Hog Crush Works

The classic hog crush hedge simulates a farrow-to-finish operation by selling lean hog futures and buying corn and soybean meal futures in proportions that reflect real-world feed ratios.

For a deeper breakdown of the mechanics and math behind this strategy, view the full CME whitepaper: Trading Opportunities in Lean Hogs

Full Disclaimer

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades, statistical services, and other sources that Paradigm Futures believes to be reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice given will result in profitable trades.