Egypt’s key role in the global grain market, continues to navigate its agricultural landscape with a mix of domestic production growth and reliance on imports, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) Grain and Feed Annual report released on March 27, 2025. Prepared by the Cairo post, the report (EG2025-0009) provides detailed forecasts for marketing year (MY) 2025/26 (July-June for wheat, October-September for corn and rice), highlighting trends in wheat, corn, and rice production, consumption, and trade. Below, we explore the key takeaways and include a data chart derived from the report’s wheat import statistics.
Wheat: Stable Imports Amid Rising Production and Exports
Egypt’s wheat imports for MY 2025/26 projected to hold steady at 13.0 million metric tons (MMT), matching the revised estimate for MY 2024/25, which saw a 4% upward adjustment due to increased foreign exchange (forex) availability. This stability reflects Egypt’s dual role as a major wheat importer and an emerging exporter of wheat flour, particularly to conflict-affected Middle Eastern and African countries like Sudan and Yemen. Wheat flour exports forecasted to reach 1.7 MMT in MY 2025/26, a 20% increase from the previous year, driven by competitive pricing and geographic proximity.
Domestic wheat production estimated to rise slightly to 9.3 MMT, up 1% from MY 2024/25, thanks to an expanded harvested area of 1.43 million hectares (HA) and competitive procurement prices set by the Government of Egypt (GOE). The GOE’s procurement price for locally produced wheat increased to 2,200 Egyptian pounds (EGP) per ardeb ($303/MT) in October 2024, incentivizing farmers to plant more. However, challenges like population growth, limited water resources, and land fragmentation continue to cap horizontal expansion, pushing the Agriculture Research Center (ARC) to focus on vertical yield improvements through techniques like raised bed cultivation.
Data Spotlight: Wheat Imports by Origin
Source: USDA FAS, Grain and Feed Annual, Egypt GASC
Total wheat consumption expected to climb to 20.4 MMT. Reflecting a 1.5% increase, driven by population growth. Egypt’s population exceeds 107 million and hosts 10 million migrants. The bread subsidy program, a cornerstone of Egypt’s food security, remains a significant consumer of wheat. However, prices hike for subsidized bread from 5 to 20 piasters per loaf in June 2024.
A notable shift in wheat procurement occurred in late 2024. The Future of Egypt for Sustainable Development (FoESD) replacing the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) as the primary importer. Thus, signaling a strategic pivot in Egypt’s food import framework.
Corn: Poultry Sector Drives Consumption Growth
Corn consumption forecasted to rise to 15.8 MMT in MY 2025/26, up from 15.6 MMT. Propelled by a rebounding poultry sector—the largest consumer of corn for feed. Production is expected to increase to 7.25 MMT (a 3.6% rise). Supported by a larger harvested area of 950,000 HA and improved pest management. Still, Egypt relies heavily on imports, projected at 8.7 MMT, with top suppliers including Brazil, Ukraine, and Argentina. The availability of forex since 2024 has bolstered import capacity, aiding the poultry industry’s recovery from a 40% production drop in 2023.
Rice: Steady Production, Shifting Consumption
Rice production and imports remain unchanged at 3.9 MMT and 185,000 MT, respectively, despite water use restrictions in the Delta. Consumption forecasted to dip to 4.0 MMT as consumers shift to cheaper starches like pasta and potatoes. Egypt’s rice export ban, continues, though imports of long-grain varieties from China and India persist for health-conscious consumers.
This data underscores Egypt’s reliance on Russian wheat. Which accounted for over 60% of GASC’s imports in the past five years, a trend likely to continue given Russia’s competitive pricing.
Conclusion
Egypt’s grain outlook for MY 2025/26 reflects a balancing act between boosting domestic production and leveraging imports to meet demand. Wheat remains a stable pillar, corn gains momentum with poultry sector growth, and rice holds steady amid shifting consumer preferences. As Egypt navigates forex availability, subsidy reforms, and regional export opportunities, its agricultural strategy will continue to shape its role in global grain markets.
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