China Grain & Feed: Corn Production Rising, Imports Retreat

China Grain & Feed Outlook 2025/26

China’s corn market is entering a new stage of adjustment. Domestic production is climbing, animal feed demand is stable, and imports are falling fast. Government policy is reshaping this balance, with major consequences for global exporters.

The latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) update projects China’s corn production in MY2025/26 at 298 million metric tons (MMT). That figure is slightly higher than last year’s crop. At the same time, imports are expected to reach only 7 MMT. With the FAS estimate at 10 MMT for 25/26; far below the 23 MMT brought in during MY2023/24. Beijing has clearly chosen self-sufficiency over dependence on outside suppliers.

Domestic Production Trends

China grows corn in many regions, but three areas dominate output: the Northeast provinces, the North China Plain, and Xinjiang. Farmers in the Northeast cut acreage in 2025 because of weak local prices. Heilongjiang alone reduced planted area by about 3 percent, which lowered production by roughly 2 percent.

Xinjiang tells a different story. Over the past three years, the region added almost 600,000 hectares of grain land. That accounted for more than a quarter of the national increase. Investments in irrigation and mechanization have paid off, and Xinjiang now contributes heavily to western China’s supply. The North China Plain also produced stronger yields in 2025 thanks to favorable rainfall during grain fill.

Feed Demand Recovery

Corn is once again the backbone of China’s feed industry. MY2025/26 feed use is forecast at 238 MMT, nearly two-thirds of all corn demand. That is a modest increase from last year. The hog sector is stabilizing, and poultry and aquaculture continue to grow steadily.

Large feed mills reported using 6 percent more corn in the first seven months of 2025. The grain is cheaper than alternatives such as sorghum and barley, which lost ground in rations. Starch and ethanol plants also provide firm demand, consuming around 85 MMT of corn each year. Exports of starches and syrups rose 16 percent in 2025, showing that industrial processing remains a strong driver of consumption.

This balance between production, feed use, and imports is best seen in the chart below. It tracks China’s corn production, feed consumption, total imports, and U.S. imports from 2015 to 2025.

What the Chart Shows

• Steady Production Growth: Output has grown from about 260 MMT in 2015 to nearly 300 MMT in 2025. Yield improvements and better farming practices explain the rise.
• Feed Use Recovery: Feed use dipped in the late 2010s but has rebounded. Corn regained its position as the cheapest and most effective energy grain.
• Import Boom and Bust: Imports peaked at close to 30 MMT in 2020–2021. They have since collapsed under policy restrictions and larger domestic reserves.
• Collapse of U.S. Market Share: U.S. corn shipments to China surged in 2020 but fell to zero by 2024–2025. China shifted to Brazil and Russia for supply.

Import Policy and Global Impact

China’s lower import numbers reflect deliberate policy choices. Since 2024, authorities have slowed customs clearance, delayed quota allocations, and imposed bonded zone limits. These tools help cap imports and keep domestic prices stable. Officials argue that the policies protect farmers and encourage self-reliance.

The global grain trade feels the effects. The United States has lost access to its largest growth market. Brazil quickly stepped in, shipping more than 1 MMT in late 2025. Russia is also exporting to northern ports with new rail links. China now buys from multiple origins, reducing reliance on any single exporter and increasing its leverage in trade negotiations.

Looking Ahead

China’s corn outlook for 2026 remains stable. Large government reserves give the market a cushion against supply shocks. Officials have already auctioned imported corn stocks to ease storage pressure and guide prices. Domestic corn prices are likely to remain soft next year unless severe weather disrupts yields.

Feed substitution will continue in some regions. Kazakh wheat flour is cheaper in western China than domestic shipments, and old rice stocks are being released for industrial use. Even so, corn remains the most versatile and affordable feed grain. Swine and poultry producers will continue to depend on it as their main energy source.

For global markets, the message is clear. China’s demand for massive corn imports has ended for now. Exporters must adapt to a world where Beijing leans on local harvests and alternate suppliers. U.S. producers, in particular, face the challenge of rebuilding a market position lost to trade frictions and shifting policy priorities.