WASDE — August 2025: Big Corn, Tighter Wheat, Mixed Oilseeds
Released August 12, 2025
USDA’s August WASDE delivered a record U.S. corn yield and crop, a slightly tighter U.S. wheat balance, and modestly smaller U.S. soybean carryout. Cotton production was cut on higher abandonment, while rice supplies and exports were nudged up.
What Changed This Month
- Corn: First survey-based yield at 188.8 bpa; production up to 16.742B bu; ending stocks up to 2.117B bu; season-average price trimmed to $3.90.
- Wheat: Production down slightly to 1.927B bu; exports raised to 875M bu; ending stocks cut to 869M bu; farm price at $5.30.
- Soybeans: Yield at 53.6 bpa; production 4.292B bu; exports 1.705B bu; ending stocks 290M bu; price $10.10.
- Rice: Production lifted to 208.5M cwt; ending stocks 44.6M cwt; all-rice SAFP $14.20/cwt.
- Cotton: Production reduced to 13.21M bales; ending stocks 3.60M bales; upland price to 64¢/lb.
- Sugar: 2025/26 ending stocks raised to 2.160M STRV; stocks/use ratio at 17.8%.
U.S. Grains & Oilseeds — Key Numbers
| Commodity | Yield | Production | Exports | Ending Stocks | Season Avg Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn (2025/26) | 188.8 bpa | 16,742 mil bu | 2,875 mil bu | 2,117 mil bu | $3.90/bu |
| Wheat (2025/26) | — | 1,927 mil bu | 875 mil bu | 869 mil bu | $5.30/bu |
| Soybeans (2025/26) | 53.6 bpa | 4,292 mil bu | 1,705 mil bu | 290 mil bu | $10.10/bu |
| Rice (2025/26) | 7,636 lb/acre | 208.5 mil cwt | 97.0 mil cwt | 44.6 mil cwt | $14.20/cwt |
Notes: All figures refer to 2025/26 unless stated. “mil bu” = million bushels; “cwt” = hundredweight.
Other U.S. Crops — Snapshot
| Commodity | Production | Ending Stocks | Season Avg Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sorghum (2025/26) | 391 mil bu | 43 mil bu | $3.70/bu | Yield 69.0 bpa; acreage modestly higher. |
| Cotton (2025/26) | 13.21 mil 480-lb bales | 3.60 mil bales | $0.64/lb (upland) | Higher abandonment in the Southwest. |
| Sugar (2025/26) | Beet 5.266M; Cane 4.162M STRV | 2.160M STRV | — | Stocks/use 17.8%. |
Market Read
Corn: A 188.8 bpa yield and a 16.742B bu crop lift ending stocks to 2.117B bu, pressuring price ideas toward the new $3.90 season average. Watch demand follow-through in exports (2.875B bu) and ethanol use.
Wheat: Slightly smaller crop and higher exports tighten the balance sheet, trimming ending stocks to 869M bu; farm price guided at $5.30 with cross-grain pressure from corn.
Soybeans: Yield improves, but reduced area and slower sales keep carryout modest at 290M bu; price steady at $10.10.
Cotton & Rice: Cotton output drops on higher abandonment; upland price rises to 64¢/lb. Rice production and exports tick higher, with ending stocks near 44.6M cwt.
Global Notes (Selected)
- Wheat: World ending stocks lowered to 260.1 MMT (lowest since 2015/16); EU crop raised to 138.3 MMT; China trimmed.
- Coarse Grains: Global corn stocks up to 282.6 MMT despite EU/Serbia heat impacts; U.S. & Ukraine exports higher.
- Oilseeds: Global oilseed output lowered to 690.1 MMT; global soybean ending stocks to 124.9 MMT.
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-663), August 12, 2025.
View the full USDA WASDE release on the USDA website.
For more commodity analysis, visit our Commodity Markets section.
